resolved Jan 1

Resolves YES upon confirmation from the IDF that strikes of any kind (e.g. cruise missile strikes) were conducted on at least on Yemeni target (located in Yemen).

If there is no official confirmation but a strong OSINT consensus that Israel conducted strikes in Yemen, this will also resolve YES. Should this be the case I will consult with this market's share holders to determine what consitutes a credible OSINT consensus.

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Resolving this NO as per my previous comment - there was one strike on Sana’a, but there is no consensus around who is behind it. I doubt we will ever (ie in the next month) find out.

predicted YES

For now there is no evidence for YES and I am expecting this to resolve NO as per Gallant's statement from yesterday (though, they really should have struck back...).

predicted YES

I wonder who might have blown up that Missile Brigade Base on Jabal Attan in Sana’a... U.S. says they didn't do it.

predicted YES

Talking about this beauty, apparently it also housed its own tunnel/storage network.

predicted NO

@sarius "Houthi officials denied the report, claiming that the blast occurred at a gas station, while Hezam al-Asad, a member of the Iran-backed Houthi’s political bureau, tweeted that it was caused by remnants of a bomb left over from the civil war."


Saying that the "base got destroyed by a Saudi-led coalition" is far from a "Strong OSINT Consensus" lol

Israeli Air Force chief: We have plans to strike Yemen too

@Emanuele98 No he didn't, lol. He just said that the IAF operates all across the Middle East. No mention of Yemen. Very embarassing for an actual journalist to make this mistake. But I guess I shouldn't be expecting anything from Fox News.

predicted YES

@Shump It's a quote from Kan - Israel Public Broadcasting.

predicted NO

@Emanuele98 Source? He doesn't say that in the video

predicted NO

That's weird. I rewatched the video multiple times. He doesn't say that. Maybe they interpreted the vague saying about the Middle East this way?

The Houthi actions still look extremely small-ball. Israel is trying to not escalate on all fronts (outside Gaza) so will endure the occasional token rocket.

I put a pretty bit limit order down. Will stay for the next 24 hours. Feel free to take it.

If we assume that most Israeli targets are about 1,500 - 2,000 km from Yemen, that leaves the Houthis

- their Toufan ballistic missiles with an estimated range of up to 1,900 km (courtesy of Iran)

- Samad 3 and 4 drones with an estimated range of from 1,500 km to 2,000 km

- Shahed 136 drones with an estimated range of 2,500 km

And: the Houthis have a history of threatening Israel. If the ground operations in Gaza really kicks off, they might be inclined to show some support for Hamas/PIJ: However, any Houthi attack would entail Israeli retaliation. Jericho 2 and 3 missiles could easily make it to Yemen.

The Houthis did indeed fire a few missiles earlier today. I would expect Israel to respond within the next few days.

Accordingly, with the help of God Almighty, our armed forces launched a large batch of ballistic and winged missiles and a large number of drones at various targets of the Israeli enemy in the occupied territories.

predicted NO

> Jericho 2 and 3 missiles could easily make it to Yemen.

They might not want to use those. Wonder if USA or KSA will conduct airstrikes instead.

predicted NO

@RobertSutherland ‘Bravo Two Zero’ was part of a UK/US operation to take out Iraq Scud missiles against Israel to avoid Israeli retaliation in the first Gulf War

predicted NO

@sarius The Houthis (or someone in Yemen) also launched drone/missile attacks on Oct 19 and 27, which Israel hasn't retaliated against.

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