Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Split Ticket's official national SHAVE (Substitutional House Aggregated Vote Estimate) margin for the 2026 US House of Representatives elections is greater than D+7.5% (i.e., a Democratic lead of 7.51 percentage points or higher).

This market will resolve to NO if the final 2026 national SHAVE margin is D+7.5% or lower (which includes any smaller Democratic lead, a tie, or any Republican lead).

Resolution details:

• Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the national estimate published on the Split Ticket Data Repository under "House Generic Ballot Estimates (SHAVE)" or in their official post-election 2026 analysis article.

• Timeframe: The market will resolve once the final 2026 SHAVE figures are published by Split Ticket (typically calculated in the months following the November 2026 midterm elections). If no official SHAVE estimate for the 2026 cycle is released by December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to N/A.

• Definition of Margin: Margins are calculated as Democrat % - Republican %. A value of exactly D +7.50% or lower resolves to NO. A value of D +7.51% or higher resolves to YES.

Background

Split Ticket's SHAVE (Substitutional House Aggregated Vote Estimate) is a demographic and statistical metric designed to calculate a "true" national generic congressional ballot. Traditional raw popular vote tallies are distorted by uncontested districts, jungle-primary lockouts, and candidate qualification failures where voters are not presented with a bipartisan choice.

SHAVE corrects for this by substituting modeled bipartisan outcomes in uncontested seats using state-level swings, turnout shifts, and historical presidential results.

Historical national SHAVE margins:

• 2020: D +2.08% (vs. Biden's +4.28% margin)

• 2022: R +1.64% (vs. a raw House popular vote of roughly R +2.8%)

• 2024: R +2.10% (virtually identical to the 2022 midterm environment)

For this market to resolve to YES, the 2026 midterm elections must produce a "Blue Wave" environment resulting in a SHAVE margin of at least D+7.51%.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Split Ticket's official national SHAVE (Substitutional House Aggregated Vote Estimate) margin for the 2026 US House of Representatives elections is strictly greater than D+7.5% (i.e., a Democratic lead of D+7.51% or higher).

This market resolves to NO if the final 2026 national SHAVE margin is D+7.5% or lower (which includes any smaller Democratic lead, a tie, or any Republican lead).

Resolution Details:

• Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the 2026 national estimate published on the Split Ticket Data Repository under "House Generic Ballot Estimates (SHAVE)" or in their official post-election 2026 analysis article published on Split Ticket.

• Timeframe: The market will resolve once the final 2026 SHAVE figures are published by Split Ticket (typically calculated in the months following the November 2026 midterm elections). If no official SHAVE estimate for the 2026 cycle is released by December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to N/A.

• Definition of Margin: Margins are calculated as Democrat % - Republican %. A value of exactly D+7.50% or lower resolves to NO. A value of D+7.51% or higher resolves to YES.

Background

Split Ticket's SHAVE (Substitutional House Aggregated Vote Estimate) is a demographic and statistical metric designed to calculate a "true" national generic congressional ballot. Traditional raw popular vote tallies are distorted by uncontested districts, jungle-primary lockouts, and candidate qualification failures where voters are not presented with a bipartisan choice.

SHAVE corrects for this by substituting modeled bipartisan outcomes in uncontested seats using state-level swings, turnout shifts, and historical presidential results.

Historical national SHAVE margins:

• 2020: D+2.08% (vs. Biden's +4.28% margin)

• 2022: R+1.64% (vs. a raw House popular vote of roughly R+2.8%)

• 2024: R+2.10% (vs. a raw House popular vote of roughly R+1.6%)

For this market to resolve to YES, the 2026 midterm elections must produce a "Blue Wave" environment resulting in a SHAVE margin of at least D+7.51%.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.