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MANIFOLD
Who will win the Shooters Hill by-election on 26 June 2025.
1
Ṁ200Ṁ9
resolved Jun 27
100%17%
Tamasin Rhymes (Green Party)
12%
Jummy Dawodu (Labour Party)
11%
Paul Banks (Reform UK)
12%
Kirstie Shedden (Liberal Democrats)
12%
Arnold Edwin Tarling (Independent)
12%
Nazia Atif Tingay (Independent)
11%
Tim Waters (Conservative and Unionist Party)
12%Other

The Shooters Hill by-election is scheduled for 26 June 2025 after the Labour party candidate resigned.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the highest number of votes in the Shooters Hill by-election scheduled for 26 June 2025. Official results will be published on the Royal Borough of Greenwich's website: By-election results.

Background

The Shooters Hill by-election was called following the resignation of Councillor Ivis Williams. The candidates standing for election are:

  • Paul Banks (Reform UK)

  • Jummy Dawodu (Labour Party)

  • Tamasin Rhymes (Green Party)

  • Kirstie Shedden (Liberal Democrats)

  • Arnold Edwin Tarling (Independent)

  • Nazia Atif Tingay (Independent)

  • Tim Waters (Local Conservative)

In the previous by-election held on 14 November 2024, Labour's Raja Zeeshan won the seat with 1,043 votes, representing 57.9% of the vote share. The turnout was 22.5%. Source

Considerations

Voter turnout in by-elections can be lower than in general elections, potentially influencing the outcome. Additionally, recent by-elections in the Royal Borough of Greenwich have seen varying results, with both Labour and Conservative candidates securing victories in different wards.

Market context
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