BACKGROUND

In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court (Alta Corte disciplinare). The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

The reformed Article 105 establishes that appeals against the High Disciplinary Court's first-instance rulings may only be filed before the same Court, with a different panel. There is no external review by the Court of Cassation or any other body. This is a significant departure from the current system, where disciplinary decisions by the CSM can be appealed to the Joint Sections of the Court of Cassation. The closed nature of the new system may generate institutional friction, particularly if a sanctioned magistrate believes the internal appeal was insufficient.

QUESTION

By December 31, 2032, will a magistrate sanctioned by the Alta Corte disciplinare formally challenge the ruling through either of these channels:

(a) Filing an application with the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) arguing that the disciplinary proceedings or the lack of external review violated the European Convention on Human Rights (e.g., Article 6, right to a fair trial).

(b) Raising a question of constitutional legitimacy (questione di legittimita' costituzionale) that is referred to the Italian Constitutional Court (Corte Costituzionale) in connection with a disciplinary proceeding before the Alta Corte.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2032, credible sources confirm that either:

(a) An application has been filed with the ECHR by a magistrate sanctioned by the Alta Corte disciplinare, challenging the proceedings or the lack of external review. Filing is sufficient; a ruling by the ECHR is not required.

(b) A question of constitutional legitimacy has been formally referred to the Corte Costituzionale (ordinanza di rimessione) in the context of a disciplinary proceeding before the Alta Corte. Referral is sufficient; a ruling by the Corte Costituzionale is not required.

Credible sources include official court registries, Gazzetta Ufficiale publications, ECHR case database (HUDOC), or reporting by at least two major news outlets.

Resolves NO if neither event has occurred by that date.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force, or if the Alta Corte disciplinare has not yet been established and begun operating by December 31, 2032.

NOTE

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.