Will there be a virtual state with no physical territory by 2040?
43
1.3kṀ2233
2041
24%
chance

The market will resolve as YES if all of the following conditions are met by close:

  • There exists an organized entity that acts as a sovereign state, though it has no physical territory or land borders except for any embassy premises.

  • This entity has a population of at least 5000 citizens who pay taxes to the entity and can participate in voting on laws or leadership.

  • The entity issues passports or other IDs that allow its citizens to travel internationally to at least 5 UN member states.

  • The entity provides dispute resolution services for conflicts between citizens or with the state.

  • The entity has at least observer status at the United Nations General Assembly, or is a full member.

  • A person can choose to be a citizen of this state exclusively, while renouncing any other citizenship.

Note: If the UN ceases to exist, I reserves the right to amend recognition criteria to an alternative that most closely approximates the original.


Edit 1: The state also must not claim to have any territory that is occupied by another state.


Edit 2: Owning some land or propery in another state doesn't count as having a territory if the host's state laws still apply in that land.

Edit 3: Every citizen should be able to obtain a passport or other ID that enables international travel access as specified in the criteria. If the entity only issues diplomatic passports, or a citizen must have a certain role, status, or profession to get a passport, then this requirement is not met.

Edit 4: Changed the recognition requirement from "recognition by at least 2 UN member" to "at least UN observer".

Edit 5: Fixed confusing wording in "travel internationally to at least 5 states recognized by UN member states" to just "... 5 UN member states".

Edit 6: Marine territory such as territorial waters or EEZ does count as physical territory of the state.

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