A service similar to ChatGPT released by Alphabet should satisfy the following conditions:
Mainly uses a chat UI to interact with users
Mainly uses a Large Language Model to generate responses
At least 1 million unique users within 1 month of release (someone who used it only once counts as a user)
Released by any subsidiary of Alphabet such as Google or DeepMind.
Dec 6, 3:14pm:
Will Alphabet release a service similar to ChatGPT before 1 January 2024?→ Will Alphabet release a service similar to ChatGPT before Jan 1st, 2024?
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Bard:
1. Uses chat UI to interact-> yes
2. Mainly uses LLM to generate responses -> yes
3. At least 1 million unique users within a month -> yes
4. Released by any subsidiary of alphabet -> yes
@Feanor Do we have proof about its monthly user count? According to market creator they need to “evaluate the credibility of those sources” that say that it has reached 1mil
@ShadowyZephyr sure, every 3rd party website I check reports numbers far above 1 million, not to mention trustworthy sources like Nat
@Feanor SimilarWeb reports 142.6 million visits in May (the public release date was 10th May), so I think the number of unique users must certainly be more than 1 million.
https://www.similarweb.com/blog/research/market-research/unique-visitors/
SimilarWeb will likely release the unique visits number later, but given that the states are not very high in this market, I resolve it as YES now.
https://twitter.com/natfriedman/status/1662177943995695104
bard has 3.7 M daily visits now according to this tweet.
Bard is now released to the general public. If this reaches more than 1 million unique users within a month, this market resolves yes.
@ShadowyZephyr In that case I will try to estimate the number of users based on third party sources. 1 million users seem already be passed (see my latest comment). I just need to evaluate the credibility of that information.
https://gizmodo.com/google-openai-chatgpt-google-search-1849922839
"Though Google executives publicly express a tone of caution when it comes to rolling out new AI features to the public, recent reporting from The New York Times suggests some in Google’s management view the sudden rise of publicly available generative AI tools like ChatGPT as a “code red” situation."
"Though Google wants to avoid rushing out a public chatbot that could potentially spread false or toxic information, the Times report says teams in Google’s Research, Trust and Safety, and other divisions have been reassigned to work on new prototypes and products ahead of a May conference."
