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MANIFOLD
How many of the delegates needed to win will each Republican candidate receive at the 2024 RNC?
1
Ṁ195Ṁ50
resolved Nov 14
ResolvedN/A
60%
Donald Trump
7%
Ron DeSantis
7%
Nikki Haley
7%
Vivek Ramaswamy
7%
Chris Christie
7%
Tim Scott
7%Other

Whoever receives the nomination will resolve YES.

Anyone else who receives delegates will resolve to a percentage: 100 * delegates_received / delegates_to_win, rounded up

Every other entry resolves NO.

E.g. 2469 total delegates, 1235 delegates for a majority, Candidate A receives 2048, Candidate B receives 420, Candidate C receives 1, candidate D receives 0:

Candidate A resolves YES, Candidate B resolves 34%, Candidate C resolves 1%, Candidate D resolves NO.

Where there is ambiguity, I will bias toward higher resolutions: e.g. I am rounding up, if no vote happens at the convention I'll use the best known values from the state elections, if a candidate becomes ineligible but still receives votes at the convention I would assign them here, I'll use a candidate's highest count in any round of a brokered convention, etc.

I do bet in my own markets, but I will exit all my positions in this market before the close.

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This market type doesn’t allow you to resolve YES to one of the answers and a percentage for another. The percentages that you resolve to must sum up to 1

@JoshuaB oh, I didn't realize that, obviously