Between 20 and 30 inclusive. If the number of 31 or more unique traders is reached, the marker will resolve as NO.
Update 2026-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the unique traders number shown on the market at close, not an independently calculated count of holders plus non-holding traders.
Update 2026-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the trader count reaches 31, the market resolves NO — this holds even if the 31st trader bets YES.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ211 | |
| 2 | Ṁ115 | |
| 3 | Ṁ115 | |
| 4 | Ṁ71 | |
| 5 | Ṁ42 |
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it's a similar market so I thought you might find it fun
@ChrisCook the unique traders number indicates 17 as of today. My resolution will be based on this number when the market closes
@Duck This market is controlled by the number of traders involved in it. Buying or selling changes the ability and appeal to people to invest, which affects the outcome. It's not driven by anything outside this market itself, so, if one believes that one's investments affect the outcome (even if only a little), it would be counter to the investment to simply stop investing. -- I could equivalently ask that you stop buying yes, but that would also not be in your interest, right? The particular path I'm taking is limited by the cost of the investment, so it's not like I can simply take over the market via enough mana. For one, lots of other traders have more mana than I do. For another, the more extreme the position I try to take, the more it costs me, and the less it costs others to counter it. so there's a significant tradeoff analysis to be taken into account. -- Basically I think this market is crafted to be a bit of a trap, it has a somewhat subtle, but reinforced, tendency to end at no (and the creator knows this, and immediately bet no after creation). My position can be seen as an investment in that belief, and, as I believe I can help push the outcome by investing in an extreme fashion, that's the path I'm following.