Will I, personally, gain kernel-level privileges on my Nintendo Switch 2, before the end of 2025?

This includes self-developed exploits, but it would also count if I'm merely running someone else's exploit - but it has to be running on a console that I own. If a public exploit becomes available, it's highly likely that I'd want to test it on my own console.

"kernel-level privileges" means being able to run arbitrary code at EL1. In practice this could just be applying small patches to the retail kernel at run-time.

In the event of YES, I may not be able to present incontrovertible proof (i.e. exploit details may remain private), so you may have to take my word for it. I won't bet in this market.

See also: https://manifold.markets/retr0id/will-the-nintendo-switch-2-be-hacke

Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" be hacked within 12 months of its release date?

70% chance. "hacked" means being able to run homebrew games - as an arbitrary concrete example, it must be able to run a Chocolate Doom port https://github.com/lantus/chocolate-doom-nx . Running as javascript or wasm within the web browser doesn't count, it must involve arbitrary native code execution. An unreleased or one-off hack performed by a security researcher doesn't count, it needs to be a publicly available hack, usable by hobbyists. Hardware hacks such as modchips still count. "Flashcarts" that are only capable of playing existing commercial games do not count as homebrew. Disclosure: I am myself a security researcher, who has contributed to the switch homebrew scene in the past. There's a good chance I'll end up working towards hacking the switch 2, too.

(note, the two markets have different resolution criteria and end dates!)

By the way, I pre-ordered the switch 2 and expect to have one at launch day.

• Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purposes of this market, 'my Nintendo Switch 2' refers to any Switch 2 console in the creator's possession. This includes any replacements for a previous console.