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MANIFOLD
Has OpenAI made a cryptanalytic breakthrough?
6
á¹€1ká¹€2.2k
Nov 7
9%
chance

Resolves YES if OpenAI has produced ANY of the following, prior to market close (in 30 days).

- Cryptanalytic attack that significantly weakens ECDSA or ECDH
- Cryptanalytic attack that significantly weakens ML-KEM
- Cryptanalytic attack that significantly weakens widely deployed PQ/non-PQ hybrid schemes
- Cryptanalytic attack that significantly weakens RSA

- Cryptanalytic attack that significantly weakens AES
- Cryptanalytic attack that significantly weakens SHA2 or SHA3

My definition of "significantly weakens" is that cryptographic primitives with parameters previously considered "secure" (say, RSA-2048, NIST-P256, AES-128) are no longer considered safe to deploy, by the cryptography/security community.

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bought á¹€100 NO

Mostly betting no because if they have they won't disclose it in 30 days.

@JohnDavidPressman fair enough, I might do a second market once the 30 days are up, if the rumour mill is still spinning