Any answer that doesn't happen reolves N/A, if it does happen, it resolves the same as this market:
the goal of this market is to help find out which things might be useful or not so useful for bringing more traders to Manifold.
I might continually add liquidity if the market gains traction
Update 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Sustained Threshold Requirement:
The linked market must go above 90% at least once in 2025 and remain above that level continuously for 24 hours.
Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An answer will resolve N/A if the event it describes does not happen before the linked market resolves.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน11 | |
| 2 | แน1 | |
| 3 | แน0 |
People are also trading
@strutheo's Manifold Leadership Approval Rating reaches its pre-pivot high of 73%
could you explain what you mean by "pre pivot"?
@remedyrain In mid-2024 the site staff announced a series of big changes to the site that got unofficially dubbed "the big pivot" e.g.
Real money betting, first via prize points then via sweepcash (since reversed)
Removal of new-trader bonuses in favour of trading fees (since reversed)
Removal of daily loans tab (since reversed)
Bumping up mana purchase prices and daily bonuses by 10x (since reversed)
Removing ability to convert mana to charity donations (not reversed ๐)
@TheAllMemeingEye joins and is promoted to the most senior position of the Manifold team in April or May
@TheAllMemeingEye this hasn't happened yet, i assume?
It seems very likely the linked market is about to resolve YES.
To clarify, do options here resolve n/a if it doesn't happen before linked market resolution (no point in betting on ones that haven't happened), or if it doesn't happen within the potentially larger timeframe mentioned within the option (all should be betted to near 100% even if they're unlikely)?
@TheAllMemeingEye they resolve N/A if it doesn't happen before linked market resolution. I should have been more clear in the description
@remedyrain Just keep a clause that it must be sustained for 24 hours, otherwise I can bet 200 mana on yes and put the rest here, getting free mana
@100Anonymous you're right, i'll do that, if anyone thinks the change was bad and it lost you mana unfairly, i'll revert it again.