This market tracks my commitment to taking cold showers at home throughout 2026. I ran similar markets in the past, but this year's rules are more refined and make use of warm baths as a reward or as a remedy. I'm doing this to challenge myself, save energy, possibly improve my health... and because I honestly kinda like it. ;-)

1. THE BASELINE RULE

In 2026, all showers or baths taken at home must be cold. Warm water is banned unless specifically permitted under the Conditions (Section 2) or the Stress Budget (Section 3).

2. PERMITTED CONDITIONS

I may take a warm shower/bath at home ONLY if one of these specific conditions is met:

• Work Reward: Completed > 5 hours of net academic work.

• Definition: Timer-tracked, excluding significant breaks (>5 minutes).

• Insomnia Remedy: Slept < 5.5 hours the previous night.

• Sickness: Acute physical illness where cold exposure would be medically counterproductive.

• Exams & Deadlines: Date of exam ± 1 day OR date of mock exam (2+ hours), date of paper submission deadline ± 1 day.

• Calendar: Public holidays (11 total), Dec 24, Dec 27, Dec 31, and my birthday.

  • Bonus: If a Calendar exemption is NOT used, I may add +1 token to my Stress Budget.

3. THE STRESS BUDGET

I have a bank of "Wildcard Tokens" to use for unspecified high-stress relief.

• Allowance: 12 tokens for the year (plus any accrued Calendar bonuses).

• Usage: One token = One warm shower/bath without satisfying Section 2 conditions.

4. RESOLUTION CRITERIA

• Reporting: Honor System.

• Failure: If I take a warm bath/shower without a valid trigger or exceed the wildcard budget, the market resolves NO.

• Success: If I adhere to the rules and strictly follow these triggers until Dec 31, 2026, the market resolves YES.

• Changes: "Bugfixes" (clarifications/friction reduction) are permitted.

I will not trade on this market.

Thanks for participating. ❤️