There's a bit of a fad of taking cold showers for supposed health benefits (typically something about inflammation or circulation).
By 2040, will it generally be accepted that cold showers offer nonnegligible net health benefits to most people (i.e., not just helpful for some rare conditions)? This market will resolve "no" if there is some speculative evidece but it's not generally accepted. This market will resolve "yes" if the consensus in 2040 is that it was beneficial in 2023 (time of market creation) but these benefits no longer apply (due to, for instance, future medical advances make the point moot).
Obviously I mean "compared to normal, warm showers" – the point isn't to determine if there are health benefits associated with showering at all.
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To clarify - if you go to a randomly selected GP in 2040 and say 'hey, I was thinking of taking a 5 minute cold shower once a day (or some other simple protocol), is that a good idea, a bad idea or irrelevant to my health?' and likely get a 'yes', does that hold more weight for resolution than if you asked someone in the street the same question?
@PipFoweraker yeah, resolution is on whether it's beneficial to health, not whether people actually do it. If random GP (generally) says it's probably net good when prompted that would cause it to resolve positively (absent stronger reason to resolve negatively). Response from random person on the street counts ~0 here. Respected meta-analyses would generally count more than what random GPs say, though, as data from those might not have trickled down to GPs.