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MANIFOLD
If Navier-Stokes is solved by Claude this year, what will be its solution?
3
Ṁ1kṀ2.9k
Dec 31
43%
Global 3D regularity
56%
Finite-time blow-up
1.6%
Something else

For this market to not resolve N/A, all of the following must be true:

  • Anthropic PBC must have released a proof of the Navier-Stokes problem

  • They must claim (and it must be widely accepted) that the proof was primarily authored by one of their AI models.

  • That proof must have been released before January 1, 2027.

  • The proof must be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute.

If one of these conditions are not met before January 1, 2027, this market resolves N/A.

1. Fluids stay smooth forever


YES if Clay accepts the proof to confirm their “existence and smoothness” alternative. (Every smooth 3D flow stays smooth perpetually.)

2. A smooth flow explodes


YES if Clay accepts the proof to confirm their “breakdown” alternative. (Some smooth 3D starting flow becomes singular.)

3. Something else


YES if Clay accepts the proof as resolving the Navier–Stokes prize, but not by awarding either official alternative above.

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