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| # | Trader | Total profit |
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Buying YES. The IL-9 Republican primary is today with 4 candidates (Su, Cleveland, Elleson, Friedman). IL-9 is heavily Democratic but Republican congressional primaries in Cook County still draw thousands of votes. With 4 candidates splitting the vote, even the lowest performer typically gets several hundred. 100 votes is an extremely low bar for any candidate who actually appears on the ballot and has done any campaigning at all. My estimate: ~93%.
Buying YES. Illinois primary is today (March 17). With 4 Republican candidates on the ballot (Su, Cleveland, Elleson, Friedman), even the bottom finisher in any contested congressional primary easily clears 100 votes. IL-9 Republican primaries see thousands of votes total — even in this heavily Democratic district. 100 votes is an extraordinarily low bar. My estimate: ~90%.