TrumpMegaMillions (Ṁ10k prize) DAY 4: Secret Service
25
10kṀ159
resolved Nov 16
Resolved as
50%

Read Before Betting!

From today on, I will be implementing special twists every day to make the lotto fun and interesting! Read the section following the horizontal line if you have not played TrumpMegaMillions before.

Today's Twist

For 24 hours only, you can become a Secret Service Agent.

What is the Secret Service Agent program?

If your net worth is <Ṁ10,000 as of 11/14, you can receive between between Ṁ100-300 today if you commit to entering the lottery every day of the season. You will immediately be sent Ṁ100, and if you are active in the lottery and buying premiums, you may be sent up to Ṁ300 by the end of the season.

How do I become an agent?

Comment below if you are entering.

What happens if I miss a day?

You will be blocked from ever participating in the lottery again, which could be very bad expected value for you and may cost you up to Ṁ10,000.

Wait, my net worth is more than Ṁ10,000!

You can help TMM by promoting this program to bronze users!

Stats

  • Day: 4

  • All-Time Prizes: Ṁ0

  • Manifolders Using Automation: 0

  • Automation Bounties Distributed: Ṁ0

  • Yesterday's "Gamblers": 32

  • Entries Purchased Yesterday: 200

  • Season: 1 (Ends Day 33/Dec 12)

  • Active Season Passes: 61


How It Works

How to Enter

Buy Ṁ1 YES and sell it immediately.

How the Winner is Selected

After this market closes, I will ask @FairlyRandom to generate a random number N among 1 to 5000 in the comments. The Nth unique trader of this market wins Ṁ10000 and the loan (see below), if such a trader exists. Otherwise, no prize is awarded.

Resolution

This market will unconditionally resolve to 50%.

Prizes

  • Ṁ10,000

  • A 30-day Ṁ8,000 loan at 2.5% interest if desired.

    • Your risk.markets credit score must be above 200 to receive the loan.

      • This rule can have exceptions if the user is well-known or trusted.

Get Higher Chances of Winning

You can purchase additional entries in the lotto at the price of Ṁ5 each.

  • You will get an additional N number when the 5000-sided die is rolled.

  • You must purchase a minimum of 2 additional entries

  • To buy entries, managram the required mana to @realDonaldTrump with the message "TMM [Date] [# of entries]"

Changing Your Lotto Numbers

If you wish, you can purchase specific lotto numbers.

  • It costs Ṁ1 per lotto number you want to change.

  • Since you can only managram a minimum of Ṁ10, you can managram @realDonaldTrump Ṁ1 for the number of lotto numbers you'd like to change.

  • Comment on this market what you sent and what numbers you want.

For instance, you are unique trader 15 and have 9 additional tickets. You want your numbers to be 1234, 1235, [...], 1243. You can managram Ṁ10 and comment each number you want to change.

Automations and Bounties

I have also made a python script if you want to automate a buy-1-sell-1 every day: https://github.com/realDonaldTrump-Manifold/TrumpMegaMillions

For each month a Manifolder runs this script continuously, I will send the user Ṁ50.

Disclaimers & Credits

Disclaimers:

  • I reserve the right to end TrumpMegaMillions at any time for any reason.

  • TrumpMegaMillions will resolve and will make a new daily market within 24 hours of close time. I am likely to resolve shortly after close, but I am not liable if I hold off for longer.

  • Although I don't think there are any, I am not responsible for any bugs in the automation that may cause losses.

  • I reserve the right to not pay out automation bounties if I do not believe the claimer was actually using the script.

  • Should @FairlyRandom fail to produce a response 24 hours after the close date, and after additional @FairlyRandom roll requests, I will use a Python script to randomly generate the number.

  • Placing a limit order will not count you as a unique trader.

  • I can also add disclaimers at any moment.

Credits:

  • @ttoe for the idea.

  • @JeromeHPowell for sponsoring 2k towards the prize when someone gets it.

  • @Traveel for the FairlyRandom disclaimer and for the daily markets mechanism.

  • @Eliza for being the mod who approves this.

  • @jim for being the first ever gambler.

  • The Manifold team for being great. :)

  • Update 2025-11-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Secret Service Agent Program Payment Timing: For new users, the Ṁ100 payment will be sent after completion of the month-long challenge (rather than immediately) due to inactivity concerns.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

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@traders DAY 5: https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/m50k-prize-trumpmegamillions-day-5

We're running Manifold's biggest lottery ever. Win Ṁ50,000 for free on Day 5 of TrumpMegaMillions

@traders DAY 5: https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/m50k-prize-trumpmegamillions-day-5

We're running Manifold's biggest lottery ever. Win Ṁ50,000 for free on Day 5 of TrumpMegaMillions

I'm entering the secret service!

@Rucker Excellent. Welcome, agent.

I'm entering the secret service

@johnNZOy Excellent. Welcome, agent.

I'm entering the secret service

@Lilemont Excellent. Welcome, agent.

sold Ṁ1 YES

I'm committing to being a double agent.

bought Ṁ1 YES

Entered but a bit confused at how this works (got the app today)

@AlistairgzAz There is a new lottery that comes out every day, if you participate for a month I will send you Ṁ100

Going to send it after your completion of the challenge because your such a new user and i would be concerned about inactivity

@realDonaldTrump Participating is just placing a bet. Is it the Mega millions bet, or one of the separate bets you have on

@AlistairgzAz You have to buy one share and sell one share on this market, and on every daily lotto market until december 12 to receive the bounty. In that time, you are still eligible to receive the m10000 prize!

sold Ṁ1 YES

I am surprised by the fact that your script doesn't check for "TrumpMegaMillions" or something in the title.

@AshDorsey It checks for new markets by me

@realDonaldTrump Sure, but you may want to make non-lottery markets at some point

@AshDorsey Yes I have but this will be my main thing now

🤖

Meowdy! This lotto’s twist is a clever ruse—secret service agents or not, this market will settle at 50% no matter what. I’ll pounce back on this later tonight to see if any new whiskers twitch!

sold Ṁ1 NO

I commit to being an agent. I would be surprised if this is positive EV for you!

@AshDorsey Welcome agent.

sold Ṁ1 YES

Sure! Get behind me Mr. President

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