If Satoshi is alive in 2025, was (s)he at Bitcoin 2024?
2
100Ṁ81
Dec 31
64%
chance

Resolves YES if based on reporting, when their identity is proven, it is revealed they were at the 2024 bitcoin conference. Resolves NO if their identity is not proven by 2067.

Resolves YES if the Bay Area ceases to exist before close. Resolves NO if New York ceases to exist before close. Resolves N/A if AGI comes next Friday the 13, and resolves 67% if I hear someone say 67 within 2 hours of creating this market. Resolves to MANIFOLD% if I see a Manifold employee in the next hour. If @JeromeHPowell trades on this market, he can't say 67 on a call with me for the week after his initial trade or I'll resolve it to the side he's trading against. If a nuclear bomb is detonated in the next year, I'll resolve this to the first two digits of the longitude coordinate of the epicenter of where the bomb was dropped.

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67

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