Will my next blog post receive more than 25 views within one month of its release?
2
43
แน€90
resolved Apr 4
Resolved
YES

I run a blog! I've done five posts so far, and there have been some interesting readership trends. The view count for each post in chronological order is 49, 32, 59, 33, and 14, though old posts tend to receive a heavy boost in views (like, nearly double the previous amount) when I post something new, presumably from people who didn't read the old ones. It's obviously a small sample size, but there's still been a steady drop in initial readership, with the exception of my third post (possible factors include it being a pop culture post, which tend to capture attention more).

I plan to release a post on April 1, and don't plan on promoting it any more than usual (right now, I mention it on my Discord status and Instagram Story, and very occasionally it comes up in IRL conversations with people).

This market resolves YES if I check my dashboard on the morning of May 1 and there are 25 or more views; if there are fewer views, NO. I promise to conduct the market fairly and not artificially increase my view count (e.g. by visiting my post on multiple devices).

Blogger typing on a typewriter
Get แน€200 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€10
2แน€7
Sort by:

It somehow jumped from 7 to 43 overnight, and I'm a little suspicious since my other posts only got a boost of about 1-2 views from the new readership (the ratio is way off from usual). I'm still resolving this market to YES, but I am very confused.

Also if your dashboard counts multiple visits from the same IP address/user agent as multiple views, anyone can bet on YES and then trivially make this resolve YES.

Pretty sure I can ensure this resolves YES if I wanted to, but current incentives are too small...

@IsaacKing I mean, sure, you could. I guess that's an inherent limitation in the market, though I would hope you don't blatantly try to manipulate it just to make a profit?

Anyway, I removed the link from the market description so future bettors won't have access to the blog.

@puntabulous Wait, are you saying you don't want publicity? I thought the purpose of this market was to get you more readers.

@IsaacKing No, I'm just curious if the trend will continue and decided to make a market about it.

I originally put the link to the blog preemptively since I figured someone would ask what the blog is about as a potential factor for views, but I value the risk of potential manipulation more than the potential gain of some unessential information.

bought แน€15 of YES

is it gonna be an april fools thing!

@Conflux I've considered it, but probably not. I'm known to occasionally pull large-scale pranks, but that would require solid ideas.