Will Romania invoke NATO Article 4 over a Black Sea drone incident before September 1, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ38Aug 31
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Resolves YES if Romania formally requests NATO consultations under Article 4 explicitly because of one or more Black Sea drone incidents before 12:00 AM EEST on September 1, 2026. Otherwise resolves NO.
Informal consultations, public discussion of Article 4, NATO meetings requested by another country, or actions under Article 5 do not count.
Primary sources: the Romanian government and NATO. The market closes 12 hours before the deadline.
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