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MANIFOLD
When will Bitcoin hit $150K? [resolves N/A if $150K not by June 2026]
102
Ṁ2.3kṀ250k
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
N/A
3%
Jul 2025
2%
Aug 2025
3%
Sep 2025
2.0%
Oct 2025
2%
Nov 2025
2.0%
Dec 2025
3%
Jan 2026
2%
Feb 2026
2%
Mar 2026
2%
Apr 2026
2%
May 2026
75%
Jun 2026

Resolution Criteria:

The market resolves “Yes” resolves to the month (in PT) when Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $150,000 USD at any point between Jul 11, 2025 and Jun 30, 2026 at 23:59 PT, based on data from Coinbase. The price must be reflected as the high price in any 1-minute candlestick during this tenure.

If Bitcoin does not hit $150K during this time, the market resolves “N/A.”

Resolution Date & Time: Jun 30, 2026, at 23:59 PT, or earlier if Bitcoin crosses $150K at any time during the tenure.

Market context
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opened a Ṁ22,222 YES at 75% order

Please resolve n/a

@ShaneBo done.

A bunch of people bet no... so if I sell right now, I'll make profit off an N/A market. haha

I'm wondering if given the contention and league consequences if it makes more sense to ensure this resolves in time to be counted for June(right at 11:59) or to slide into July?

@ShaneBo resolve it n/a as soon as possible

Why has this market not been deboosted yet?

@Jack1 This feels like one of those rare use cases for that moderator power. I agree.

Am I missing something or is it impossible for June to resolve No? Why are people betting No?

@AndrewHebb it'll resolve N/A, possibly after June leagues closes. Any temporary profits/losses may or may not count for June league.

i guess it's because it resolves N/A, but that's essentially immobilizing money

@Chimpy Yes immobilised mana but if you have a spare 500,000 mana ...
Doesn't help for all time profits if it is NA'd but what about monthly leagues?
No risk to funds and those betting yes only have to bet small amounts for large gains. If it gets resolved in same month ah well no gain or loss but if resolved after June market ends then it could be league gain for no mana risked. So if there is chance of delayed NA then all options should adjust to 50% ?

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 5% order

@Chimpy do you realize that betting NO on June (which still has 3 days left, granted it's nearly impossible) is equivalent to betting YES on all the other previous options which are truly impossible?

@deagol yeah

@Chimpy ah ok i thought you were questioning my YES June bets and limits, but actually you were wondering about the YES on past months by others. Yeah, as @ChristopherRandles said this is just leagues shenanigans by now.

@deagol ahh, ok. Cool, :)

So I have a very large lead in my League right now. I wonder if there's a business opportunity for me here...

@Quroe wait how

@Chimpy I am uniquely positioned to sell League profit points to another user for gain in their division.

I could easily take a 5k temporary loss in profits and still win my division, for example.

Maybe it's not in the best spirit of League competition to do that. But the business opportunity does exist for me.

What do you think, @Stralor? Would I get a slap on the wrist for these shenanigans?

@Quroe Jack seems better placed?

@ChristopherRandles This is true!

@Quroe What gets your prize pulled

The following will result in your league prize being withheld, reduced, or recalled — even after it's been awarded:

  • Manipulating markets, misresolving, or otherwise breaking the Community Guidelines specifically to gain a leagues advantage.

  • Coordinating trades across accounts or with friends to inflate your score (see Market Manipulation).

@Jack1 Ah. Okay, yeah, that scares me off of that strategy.

@Quroe Ehh idgaf. Feels like a fun opportunity if not abused. Profit is our sacred metric for traders, not leagues.

@travis nowadays both would be unranked