This market resolves to the opposite of the linked market. I will unlist the market that resolves NO and leave the market that resolves YES listed.
https://manifold.markets/Fion/unlisted-profits-experiment-market
If you care about listed and unlisted profits equally, then you should arbitrage these markets so the probabilities add up to 100% (realistically you should probably buy them both to 50% since you don't know which way it's going to go, but if you feel like taking a gamble be my guest).
If, however, you care more about listed profits, you should buy YES (probably in both markets as above).
For example, suppose both markets were at 60% (and liquid enough that you're not going to move them), if you bought 60M YES in each market, you'd have 100 YES shares in each market. You would be guaranteed a payout of exactly 100M of listed profits, but you would have spent 120M to obtain it. So your listed profit is +40M and your total profit is -20M. Is that worth it for you? Alternatively you could buy 40M of NO in each market, and be guaranteed 100M payouts for 80M spent. Your listed profits would be -40M and your total profit would be +20M. Is that worth it for you?
This market design was inspired by the following markets:
https://manifold.markets/A/how-valuable-are-listed-profits-com
https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/this-market-resolves-to-the-opposit-e969947a2967
The difference is that this design has much less randomness than the previous ones. You know that one market will resolve YES and the other will resolve NO, and you know that the one resolving NO will be unlisted. If you bet the same thing on both markets, you know what your payout will be and how much of it will be listed. For this reason I hope it will be a more accurate indication of how much people value listed vs unlisted profits.
I may choose to trade in these markets.
If something changes that prevents me from listing/unlisting the markets as described here (e.g. a request from admins) I will resolve both markets N/A.
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน776 | |
| 2 | แน742 | |
| 3 | แน489 | |
| 4 | แน78 | |
| 5 | แน41 |
Thanks for participating. Here's my interpretation of the results:
Both markets closed at at 57%. This means you could buy 44 listed profits for the cost of 12 actual mana. Or equivalently, the value of 1 listed mana is 0.33 actual mana.
Intuitively this sounds reasonable to me, but it's interesting to note that there was a wide range among market participants, with at least three people buying right down into my limit order at 50%. This implies listed profits are literally worthless to them; while they were buying into the limit order, these people were reducing their listed profits without gaining anything. Of course, they bought down from some higher value, so for their transaction as a whole they were losing listed profits and gaining mana - it's just the bit where they bought into the limit order that they were losing listed profits and gaining nothing.
On the other side, one user brought both markets up to 76%, meaning they were willing to spend over 2 mana for 1 mana of listed profit. (And remember, that's not "2 for 1, so they only lost a net of 1", it's a net loss of 2.)
I think I agree with @DanMan314 (and @A on their market) that markets like this probably shouldn't be a regular feature. It's a shame, because I do want to know how valuable listed profits are to people, and I'd like to see how this changes over time. (Will people get more or less interested in leagues? Will there be other things listed profits are useful for? How will people care about those? How valuable are listed profits to the big whales? To new users?) Unfortunately I don't think there's any way to find out the value of something without offering the trade, and if we do offer the trade, then there's a way for people to buy league victories, which as @DanMan314 says, pretty much undermines leagues as a concept.
I'd be grateful for any thoughts. Either if you have an idea for how to probe the value without offering the trade (I think this is impossible but I'd be interested to be proven wrong) or if you just want to offer your opinion on how valuable you think listed profits are!
@Fion If you run this again at the end of the month, presumably there will be more activity since people will have a much better idea of whether they "need" the listed profits or not.
I sold a total of 854 listed profit for an actual profit of 242, so about 3.5 listed profit per M.