This market will resolve to “Yes” if a qualifying U.S.-initiated aerial strike on Somali territory is announced or credibly reported to have occurred between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Definition of a Qualifying Strike

A qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial munitions launched by United States operatives, including U.S. military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government entities, that physically impact ground territory within Somalia.

Qualifying strike methods include:

• Aerial bombs

• Drones (including FPV drones)

• Missiles (including ATGMs, cruise missiles, or ballistic missiles)

Territorial Scope

A strike qualifies if it impacts Somalia’s terrestrial territory, including:

• Land areas

• Rivers, lakes, and ports

Somalia’s territorial sea is excluded.

Exclusions (Do NOT Qualify)

The following do not qualify for a “Yes” resolution:

• Missiles or drones that are intercepted before impact

• Surface-to-air missile launches or air defense activity

• Artillery fire, small arms fire, or ground incursions

• Naval shelling

• Cyberattacks or electronic warfare

Attribution

Any qualifying strike claimed by the U.S. government or by Donald Trump during the market timeframe will qualify, provided it meets the criteria above.

Timing & Verification

• The strike must occur on or before January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT.

• This market may remain open until the end of the second calendar day after the resolution time to allow for confirmation.

• If the date and occurrence of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, the market will resolve to “No”, even if a strike is later confirmed.

Resolution Sources

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible media reporting, supplemented by official U.S. government statements when available.

• Update 2026-01-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is keeping the market open beyond the originally stated timeframe to allow for verification and potential contestation of reported strike information.