Market Question

Will the price of Bitcoin (BTC) remain between $60,000 USD and $74,000 USD, inclusive, for the entire month of March 2026?

Resolution

This market resolves to “Yes” if, from March 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM PT through March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, the BTC/USD spot price never trades below $60,000 USD and never trades above $74,000 USD, as determined by 1-minute candlestick data.

This market resolves to “No” if, at any time during the same period, the BTC/USD spot price:

• trades below $60,000 USD, or

• trades above $74,000 USD,

  as determined by 1-minute candlestick data.

Price Source

The resolution source for this market is the Coinbase BTC/USD spot price, using 1-minute candlestick data from Coinbase’s primary BTC/USD market.

Definition of “Within Range”

The price is considered within range if both conditions hold for every 1-minute candlestick during the resolution period:

• the LOW of each candle is ≥ $60,000 USD, and

• the HIGH of each candle is ≤ $74,000 USD.

Intraminute wicks count. Closing prices are not required.

Boundary Rules

• Prices exactly equal to $60,000 or $74,000 are considered within range

• Any candle with a LOW < $60,000 or HIGH > $74,000 immediately triggers a “No” resolution

Early Resolution

If the market condition for “No” is met at any point during March 2026, the market may resolve immediately without waiting for the end of the month.

Data Integrity & Fallback

If Coinbase 1-minute candlestick data becomes unavailable, a consensus of reputable BTC/USD spot exchanges (such as Kraken or Bitstamp) may be used. Temporary outages or API delays do not invalidate legitimate candlestick prints.

Market Expiry

If the price condition is satisfied for the entire period from March 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM PT through March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, the market resolves to “Yes.”