Yes if the Coinbase BTC-USD 1-minute candle low is ≤ $55,000 any time between (Jan 1, 2026 00:00 PT) through Dec 31, 2026 23:59 PT; otherwise No.
Source: Coinbase (BTC-USD).
Primary source (API) Example:
Required URL parameters:
start — ISO8601 UTC start time (e.g., 2026-02-05T22:00:00Z)
end — ISO8601 UTC end time (e.g., 2026-02-06T02:00:00Z)
granularity — seconds per candle (e.g., 60 for 1-minute bars)
Response:
[ time, low, high, open, close, volume ]
curl -X GET "https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?start=2026-02-05T22:00:00Z&end=2026-02-06T02:00:00Z&granularity=60"
Resolution: Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 PT, or earlier upon trigger.
1,000Just fyi, my math (which I trust again, it's brownian motion with drift 0 stdDev .4/y) says this has a 74% chance. Current btc price $66058
My gut still says it's going up eventually. I'm still holding what I have. But I don't expect it to go shooting up any time soon.