Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $160,000 USD at any point in 2025, based on data from Coinbase. The price must be reflected as the high/low price in any 1-minute candlestick during the year. If Bitcoin does not hit $160K during 2025, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2025, at 23:59 PST, or earlier if Bitcoin crosses $160K at any time during the year.
1,000my vibe was pretty low here and option charts back me up as of 3/5, giving just ~5% probability of this.
i think these sorts of market price markets are pretty stupid because of this: trading based on whatever the options-implied distribution is gives tremendous alpha literally all the time, since anyone who seriously had insight into the market would just trade actual options