Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $150,000 USD at any point in 2025, based on data from Coinbase. The price must be reflected as the last price in any 1-minute candlestick during the year. If Bitcoin does not hit $150K during 2025, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2025, at 23:59 PST, or earlier if Bitcoin crosses $150K at any time during the year.
1,000so bitcoin’s annualised vol has been like 50% for the last few years. i’m pretty sure if you make black scholes/normality assumptions that spits out a 50.4% chance of a 50% gain at any point in 12 months (and btc only needs like 45% gain now). and bitcoin clearly has fatter tails than a normal, and i suspect more will be more volatile this year with trump. inside view says this is like 70% likely?