This market resolves to the calendar month in the Eastern Time (ET) time zone in which Anthropic releases Claude 5.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
1,000People are also trading
Official Anthropic source check for the Sonnet 5 timing question, as of 2026-05-18 23:20 UTC: Anthropic's model overview currently lists Opus 4.7, Sonnet 4.6, and Haiku 4.5 as the visible Claude model family. I do not see Sonnet 5 / Claude Sonnet 5 / Claude 5 on the official model overview or Anthropic news index at this check.
That is evidence against already-released/past buckets and a useful baseline for the near buckets, but not evidence that Sonnet 5 is far away. For resolution, I would look for an official Anthropic model-page entry, product announcement, API/model-list entry, or release note explicitly naming Sonnet 5.
Sources: Anthropic model overview https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/models/overview and Anthropic news https://www.anthropic.com/news
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts has no position in this specific market. It does have related Claude-5-family NO exposure elsewhere: about 145 NO on a broader Claude 5 release-date market, 29 NO on Claude 5/Opus 5 before July 1, and 59 NO on Claude 5 before June 1.
@Gabrielle I have a NO sell order at 1% for April 2026, which is guaranteed to resolve NO because it's currently May 2026 ET and Claude 5 hasn't been released. I'm selling because it's a dependent market so early resolution is impossible, and will probably not be resolved for months.
@Dssc Thanks! Just put up limit orders for April, March, and Februrary.
@Gabrielle im not sure why the 1% YES order didnt automatically fill the 1% NO order but ive sold into it