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MANIFOLD
Will George Santos run for re-election?
11
Ṁ230Ṁ791
resolved Mar 19
Resolved
YES

Market resolves based on whether George Santos files paperwork to run for re-election in 2024. If Santos resigns/is expelled and doesn't attempt to run for re-election, market resolves to NO

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https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/federal-election-commission-tells-santos-announce-re-election-disavow-rcna70079

the Santos campaign has already met the definition of being an active candidate (accepting donations of or spending $5,000 toward a bid for office), triggering the need for him to declare as an active candidate or disavow the activity

candidates regularly file official paperwork before any true announcement to allow them to get the jump on fundraising, even if they’re still deciding whether to run