Manifold in the Wild 17/11/22

Created by

1) Drama surrounding Nathan Young's "fraud markets".

Context: After the FTX implosion, many felt betrayed by SBF and many EAs were quite self-critical at how no one saw it coming. In response to this, Nathan created a group of markets about influential people and if any would be exposed as fraudsters in an honest attempt to reduce the possibility of the SBF shock being repeated.

Fraud markets:
(may have to filter by resolved to see those which were cancelled).

Scott Alexander semi-jokingly mentioned them which led to people taking them far too seriously leading to criticism on Twitter and Reddit.

Nathan, although sincere with his original intent of using them as a creative way to hold powerful people accountable, quickly cancelled these markets in case they reflected poorly on EA.

2) Destiny community crashes Manifold Markets.

A slight over-exageration, but some of the intense live-trading on "permanent stocks" done in the Destiny group caused specific markets to semi-crash.

We have since made improvements to improve the processing of high volume trading on a market, but Destiny viewers can hold a badge of pride that they temporarily broke a market.

3) Destiny community creates a real-time market tracker.

Check out this awesome creation by u/IDoStuff132. It takes permanent stocks from the Destiny group and lets you choose which ones you want to see plotted on a real-time tracker!

4) Analysis of Manifold's performance forecasting the midterms

A writeup comparing Manifold to other forecasting site's performance:

Also, see our user Jack's post.

5) Other popular mentions

Hope you enjoyed! I'm planning to write these more regularly than our newsletter and they will likely contain a mix of fun stuff/memes I see created about Manifold too. If you enjoyed this you should definitely make sure you are subscribed to our newsletter (will have a decent amount of content cross-posted but often with more in-depth discussion than what I anticipate these posts to look like).