Manifold in the Wild 17/11/22
1) Drama surrounding Nathan Young's "fraud markets".
Context: After the FTX implosion, many felt betrayed by SBF and many EAs were quite self-critical at how no one saw it coming. In response to this, Nathan created a group of markets about influential people and if any would be exposed as fraudsters in an honest attempt to reduce the possibility of the SBF shock being repeated.
Fraud markets: https://manifold.markets/group/scandal-markets
(may have to filter by resolved to see those which were cancelled).
Scott Alexander semi-jokingly mentioned them which led to people taking them far too seriously leading to criticism on Twitter and Reddit.
Nathan, although sincere with his original intent of using them as a creative way to hold powerful people accountable, quickly cancelled these markets in case they reflected poorly on EA.
2) Destiny community crashes Manifold Markets.
A slight over-exageration, but some of the intense live-trading on "permanent stocks" done in the Destiny group caused specific markets to semi-crash.
We have since made improvements to improve the processing of high volume trading on a market, but Destiny viewers can hold a badge of pride that they temporarily broke a market.
3) Destiny community creates a real-time market tracker.
Check out this awesome creation by u/IDoStuff132. It takes permanent stocks from the Destiny group and lets you choose which ones you want to see plotted on a real-time tracker!
4) Analysis of Manifold's performance forecasting the midterms
A writeup comparing Manifold to other forecasting site's performance: https://mikesaintantoine.substack.com/p/scoring-midterm-election-forecasts?sd=pf
Also, see our user Jack's post.
5) Other popular mentions
Hope you enjoyed! I'm planning to write these more regularly than our newsletter and they will likely contain a mix of fun stuff/memes I see created about Manifold too. If you enjoyed this you should definitely make sure you are subscribed to our newsletter (will have a decent amount of content cross-posted but often with more in-depth discussion than what I anticipate these posts to look like).