In this changelog:

• A new home page,

• New Sports hub,

• Big perps changes,

• Verification changes,

• Many minor changes.

Before we get started, MNX has posted a new job on the job board, and we expect to have another company listing soon! Register interest to be first to see any updates.

A new home page

The last experiment is over. You may not have even noticed, as the only useful thing we’ve carried forward so far is that now searched with very few exact matches now show related results instead of nothing.

The new experiment is here, and this one is available to everyone. Your browse page still defaults to the old style, but you can elect to view the new one if you prefer it!

• Hubs for Midterms, Perps, Sports and Explore along the top.

  • Explore is a placeholder for now, but we’ll be measuring how many clicks it gets, and any subsequent activity, to consider if it’s worth spending time on that feed.

  • Markets that belong in these hubs, will only be in these hubs, unless you change the filter to show them on your home page too.

• One search box for markets, users, topics and posts. Easy to filter and find what you need, including old changelogs!

• A “← Classic” button if you want the current layout back.

• A key part of the new layout is how easy it is to manage topics, and see the topics on markets. You can now also find your topic blocklist easily, which should help a lot with curation.

• Tiles OR rows, at the flip of a switch

We're going to be A/B testing more UI changes like this, and many of you have already posted feedback for features not live for everyone. Don’t be surprised if something looks different on a friend’s screen!

New: /sports

manifold.markets/sports

The sports hub is here! You can find it on the front page, or go straight to /sports. Clicking on the sports or league topics throughout the site also now brings you here.

The goal is to make it easy to find a game, see the odds, and trade on all the interesting things that could happen around it without having to search for five different spellings of the same team.

• Live and upcoming games, grouped by day, and by sport.

• Search, date and Live filters, a Liked view for games you've saved, and a choice of cards or compact rows.

• A featured scoreboard, (not so) live scores, and linked markets beside or below the game.

• A Markets tab for the futures, season-long questions, and other community markets that don't fit into one game.

• Click a team's price to open the bet dialog on that team. US sports show the away team first; soccer keeps the home team first, with Draw in the middle.

• Team colours, clearer league labels, direct Over/Under buttons for two-answer props, and a back arrow that actually takes you back.

• Leaderboards for every sport, league and topic: top traders by profit and top creators, with a switcher to move up and down (All sports > Soccer > Premier League). If you're signed in, you'll see your own rank too.

• Once you've traded, game cards show your picks, open orders, what you've put in and your profit so far. The My bets filter lists every game you're in.

• Follow or block any sports topic from its page. Blocking hides its markets from your feeds.

• Sharing /sports shows a link preview of the featured game, in team colours.

F1 is here too. Each race weekend gets its own card, with official markets on the race winner, the podium and pole position (plus the sprint, on sprint weekends). They open with odds based on the season standings, and if a session moves or is postponed, its markets move with it. A cancelled session resolves N/A. @ManifoldSports will also run official Drivers' and Constructors' Championship markets for each new season starting next year.

Official game markets are created automatically, start at odds derived from bookmakers rather than an even split, and resolve from the final score. Coming soon, we will be creating these with much more liquidity, and withdrawing that liquidity when the match starts. Hopefully this will push more bots to act as liquidity-providers!

Community markets still have their own creators and resolution criteria. The Official and Community labels help you tell them apart. For creators, this page should help with discoverability — no more relying on 100+ answer prop bet megamarkets for the whole season!

Please try it and tell me what feels missing or annoying.

Can you find the games you care about?

Which sports or leagues should we add next?

And if you have a friend who follows sports, send them the page. I'd really like feedback from people who haven't already learned how to navigate Manifold. If you can find someone who is willing to have their first experience on site while on call with me screensharing for 30mins, I will send you both M2,500! (or, a $50 gift card for your friend if they would prefer that)

Linked markets

You can now link a market to the market it's about.

On /create, use “Link to the market this is about”, pick the parent market, and choose Line, Prop, or Related. On /sports or /election, “Add a market” does the linking for you, so your question can appear alongside the event.

For example, the main market asks who wins; yours can ask about the score, a particular player, or something much stranger. Each race card on /election now has a Linked markets section showing the props and lines linked to that race, with an “Add a market” button. So please link markets to elections too!

For ordinary markets, the close time defaults to the parent market's current close time when you create it. You can override it. It isn't a live sync: moving the parent's deadline later won't move yours, and linking an existing market won't change its deadline.

This is the first part of linked markets, not automatic shared resolution. Your market still needs its own criteria and resolution.

Consider linking your markets to perps, too! We haven’t worked out the best way to do this yet, but it would help categorise them, and in turn help with feed discoverability.

Perps: your trade fills at the next price

Perp trades now wait for the next eligible price update instead of executing immediately at the last price we received. This applies to opening, adding to, closing part or all of a position, and flipping sides.

Previously, someone watching a faster price source could trade against our old price after already knowing where it was going. Waiting for a new observation makes that harder, and is fairer to everyone else trading against the same pool.

What this means when you trade:

• The price shown before you submit is indicative, not a guaranteed fill price.

• You can have one pending trade and one pending close per market. Orders can't be cancelled while you wait.

• How long you wait depends on the feed. A fast-updating price (bitcoin = 2s) and a once-a-day index are very different things.

• A pending close does not close your position yet. Price changes, funding and liquidation still apply until it fills.

• If an order is rejected or expires, the margin reserved for it is returned and you get a notification. Reloading the page won't lose track of it.

We're leaving a base opening fee of 10bps (0.1% of your exposure) for both users and bots. It also applies when you add to a position or open the new side of a flip; closing is free. Larger positions can still incur an impact fee, so check the fee shown before trading.

We still need a small cost on rapid-fire trading to help protect the pool. The fees go back into that market's backing pool, but if pools are healthy long term, we will reduce or remove the fees. We still intend to add limit orders, and better position management over time.

New perp: the Misery Index (MSRY)

manifold.markets/Manifold/misery-index-marketimplied-unemploy

Our newest perp tracks Adjacent's Misery Implied Index (MSRY): market-implied U-3 unemployment plus market-implied CPI-U inflation (year over year), in percentage points. Adjacent reads it off event-contract prices for the next BLS releases and recalculates it every minute.

It's a great example of what we can do with next-price fills. Your order fills at the next value Adjacent computes after you place it, usually about 3 minutes later, so nobody can trade against a number they've already seen on Adjacent's site, or by calculating the index themselves in real time.

Go long if you think the market is underrating unemployment or inflation, or short if you think it's too gloomy. It's a fairly quiet index, and so the miniscule moves are the perfect case for perps & having access to 100x leverage.

Source: Adjacent Misery Implied Index (MSRY). Thanks Adjacent!

Full bonuses, without verifying

The “coming soon” bit from the last changelog is now here.

Accounts in good standing get full quest, streak, referral and creator bonuses, the push-notification bonus, and league prizes without identity verification. New accounts start with Ṁ1,000.

Referrals now pay a base Ṁ1,000 when your friend signs up through your link, with the usual membership multipliers. No waiting for their first bet or verification. Older referrals keep their original payout rules.

Comments, posts, DMs and unlisted markets unlock after a week, or earlier if you verify, buy mana or subscribe. Verification is still required for prize drawings, and an account specifically flagged for verification still needs to do it to restore its bonuses.

The point is to let people use Manifold normally without asking everyone for ID.

Other updates

Betting & markets

• More compact trade dialogs for versus, three-way and multiple choice markets. The amount, payout and balance stay together, with an expandable order book. Click an order to prefill a limit trade on the right side.

• Adding an answer to a very large multiple choice market (like the 2028 election winner market) no longer fails with “Transaction conflict”.

• Adding an answer no longer briefly shows a phantom answer if the transaction retries, and does less work loading the order book.

• The order book remembers whether you left it open, across markets and devices.

• “Hide API trades” also stays set across markets, perps and /live, including after a reload.

• Duplicating a large multiple choice market now copies all answers and their odds properly (you can easily disable the pre-set odds if you don’t want them)

• Fixed a multiple choice trading bug where several orders from the same maker could be priced as if each still had access to the maker's full balance.

• Perp price feeds can recover from a stuck fetch instead of staying frozen until a restart.

• You can now rebalance on markets that have closed but haven't resolved yet, so that mana isn't stuck waiting for resolution. (API)

• Withdrawn liquidity is now returned to every liquidity provider in proportion to their share. Before, a creator could withdraw liquidity other people had added and keep the difference at resolution.

• Fixed perp closes occasionally being rejected right after an auto-deleverage because of a tiny rounding error.

Elections & navigation

• The election page is back in the sidebar. “Unprecedented politics” highlights community markets about political firsts, and the Congress table has a Midterms view for questions that don't fit neatly under just the House or Senate.

• Election-map search stays when you switch tabs, and accepts several places separated by commas. Try “texas, ct-1”.

• The ballot measures dashboard now prices Alaska Measure 2 and California Prop 43 from their markets.

• The sidebar link is now “US Elections”, with a little waving flag when you hover it on desktop.

• The sports and election pages now match the width of the rest of the site, and drop the back arrow on desktop, where the sidebar and browser tools are sufficient.

Smaller fixes

• Yap links to Manifold pages now work in the native app.

• Fixed the flash of light theme when opening the site in dark mode.

• Fixed iPhone merch-checkout zoom and scrolling problems.

• Predictle cards now drag as soon as you swipe them on a phone, and swiping a card down no longer pull-to-refreshes the Android app.

• Fixed the membership page still offering a membership you'd just bought, which could charge you twice. If that happened to you, let me know.

• Manalinks now properly enforce their one-claim-per-person and maximum-use limits.

• A linked poll set to never close no longer closes at its parent market's deadline.

• You can set web, email and mobile notifications for @traders separately from direct mentions.

• Fixed the “your markets are moving” digest and membership-expiry reminders.

• Moderator and admin controls are more clearly marked, so it's easier to tell when you're using extra permissions. The moderator comment-delete option is now labelled “Delete spam”.

• Typing “@mods” followed by a space now tags the mods, just like picking it from the dropdown, so your report still gets filed.

• The bets chart on /stats excludes API limit orders that never filled, including historical counts back to May 2023. A bot posting and cancelling quotes is not the same thing as people trading.

• /stats has a new metric explorer (pick a section and a metric to see its chart), plus page funnels for Sports, Midterms and Perps. Home feed conversion is no longer inflated by bets placed from sports and dashboard cards.

• Removed the short-lived API-order cap that was causing periodic order delays. API-order expiry and auto-cancel notifications stay off; fill notifications are unchanged.

• Fixed the stats-update job, cut unnecessary work in league updates, portfolios, loans and notification cleanup, and improved monitoring for stalls and crashes.

• Official sports markets resolve promptly after the final whistle again. A stuck database connection had been delaying some by 30 to 50 minutes. Plus more fixes for scheduler memory use and crashes.

• Updated the AI models behind several site helpers, with caching so related-market checks don't keep making the same expensive call.

As always, tell me what's broken and what you want next. Comment here, post on Yap, or message me. Especially if you've tried /sports or the new Browse preview.

Tod (Genzy) & The Manifold Team