Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to 23:59 Beijing Time on December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the National Immigration Administration) officially announces an extension, renewal, or permanent adoption of the visa-free / visa waiver policy for ordinary Canadian passport holders beyond December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to NO if no such official extension or renewal is announced by 23:59 Beijing Time on December 31, 2026, or if the policy is revoked without renewal prior to that deadline.

Official announcements published on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China or the National Immigration Administration will serve as primary resolution sources.

Background

On February 17, 2026, China implemented a unilateral visa waiver allowing ordinary passport holders from Canada (and the UK) to enter mainland China visa-free for up to 30 days for tourism, business, transit, exchange, or visiting relatives. When established, this policy was scheduled to expire at 24:00 on December 31, 2026. China has periodically renewed or extended similar pilot visa-free arrangements for other nations in year-long increments.