This race will likely be a toss-up until the very end I expect some déjà vu from Trump's rhetoric about the integrity of the election process. The purpose of this market is mainly to determine which outcome of the election has a higher chance of civil unrest directly resulting from it.
I expect each option to have low chances after the far-right extremists, who organized some civil unrest four years ago, got charged with 20 years behind bars. 213 plead guilty to felonies that include assaults on federal officers, obstructing law enforcement and seditious conspiracy. That being said, is it enough to make a repeat by the right have lower odds than an attempt by the left?
NOTE: if congress changes the day or location of the certification before officially beginning the count, I will change "Capitol" to that new building and resolve accordingly.
related markets:
-Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?
-Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ?
-Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?
-If Trump wins, will there be wide scale civil disorder in the weeks following the election?
-Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2025?
-Will Trump pardon any of the convicted “J6ers” before 2028?
-What Event Will Happen First: Trump Elected, Harris Elected, "January 6th" Type Event (Both Biases Separate)
comment any questions or news you have!