Which happens first: Walz v Vance, Harris v Trump, or these Presidential Interviews
16
Ṁ10k
resolved Sep 3
Harris and Walz agree to first joint interview.
100%99.0%
Lex Fridman interview with Trump drops.
0.1%
Walz and Vance debate live.
0.2%
Harris and Trump debate live.
0.2%
Sean Evans (Hot-Ones) interview with Harris or Walz drops.
0.1%
Joe Rogan interview with Trump or Vance drops.
0.1%
Hasan Piker interview with Harris or Walz drops.
0.2%
Kai Cenat interview with Harris or Walz drops.
0.2%
Tucker Carlson interview with Trump or Vance drops.

Whichever event happens first will resolve 100% YES and all others will resolve NO. The only cases that would be different is if two or more events occur within the same minute, which would resolve each event to equivalent percentages that total 100%.

If the debates are somehow 2v2 tag team, and that happens first, then the debate options each resolve to 50%. If an interview drops anywhere online publicly, within the same minute of a live debate starting, or another interview dropping, then they will resolve based on the above rule to equal 100% total.

An "interview drop" occurs at the minute a sufficient video is publicly uploaded or livestream begins. It must be at least 10 minutes of footage uploaded or streamed anywhere publicly online. During the footage the interviewee must answer at least three questions asked by the interviewer. Doesn't need to be in person just a confirmed real, public interview.

latest on Lex Trump interview (no public date yet)

latest on Presidential Debate (no set date; maybe September: 4th, 10th, or 17th)

latest on Vice Presidential Debate (no set date; maybe September 25th, most likely October 1st)

latest on Hot-Ones (not much yet)

latest on Rogan Interview (nothing)

latest on Hasan interview (nothing)

latest on Kai Cenat Interview (not a lot yet)

latest on Tucker Carlson (nothing)


will extend resolve date if needed (i hope not)
comment any questions or news you have!

ps. ill link individual markets for some of the interviews with more liquidity

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@traders resolves to Lex interview now

@traders i believe this resolves to Lex right now, just gonna double check everything and resolve soon 🫡

bought Ṁ50 Lex Fridman intervie... YES

This could break the ice for Kamala 👀

Im guessing more interviews from both of them will follow. Walz already started going on podcasts. @traders

Walz and Vance debate live.
sold Ṁ12 Walz and Vance debat... YES

this will most likely happen in October after today CBS announced its invitation for an October 1st VP debate, but still has a small chance to happen sooner or later than that date. Any network could invite them to an earlier debate or Vance campaign can make them change the date (Walz already accepted)

bought Ṁ50 Walz and Vance debat... YES

that might’ve just happened, we’ll see what Walz says…

hedge/arb opportunities with more liquidity: