NOTE:
in order to prevent a confusing passing time, exact time of the pass in this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).
Through analyzing the graph after market creation, if at any 30-minute interval, I determine Trump’s odds have overtaken Kamala by at least 0.1% it will be considered a pass for the point at which the 0.1% or greater Trump lead is shown on the graph.
The first pass since 9/11 12am EST will be the only pass considered in resolving this market.
To further ensure bias has no roll in determining the “official time of the pass” I will not trade in this market.
If Trump odds never pass Kamala (0.1% gap favoring Trump) before the eod (11:59:59 pm EST) Jan 5th 2025, then “Trump never passes Kamala (by 0.1%)” will resolve YES and everything else will resolve NO.
NOTE: each option referring to a specific day have the following rules: 11:59:59 pm EST when it’s the second day mentioned, and 12:00:00 am EST when it’s the first day mentioned in the option.
Any glitches on their website will not resolve this. I will wait until the point in question is static and the following point is plotted to determine if it was a pass and at what exact moment.
Comment any question or news you have! 💙
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@traders it has been done. thank you all for trading. will make a part 4 if she takes the lead again 🫡
@GregMister only one option can resolve YES. if you think she is very likely to pass in september, then by definition the october bucket is unlikely
@Ziddletwix the point is that given it is uncertain, assuming a uniform likelihood until election day, the october one is like 5x more likely, so if youre going to bet, might as well be that one