When will Trump pass Harris on “electionbettingodds”?
Standard
76
Ṁ48k
resolved Oct 7
WALZ v. VANCE
100%99.1%
October 1st to November 4th (VP debate likely within)
0.1%
[RESOLVES "NO" dont bet up] September 11th to September 22nd (post Trump-Harris debate)
0.1%
[RESOLVES "NO" dont bet up] September 23rd to September 30th (likely pre VP debate)
0.2%
November 5th to December 15th (Election Day within)
0.1%
December 16th to January 5th (electors vote within)
0.4%
Trump never passes Harris (by 0.1%)

NOTE:

in order to prevent a confusing passing time, exact time of the pass in this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).

Through analyzing the graph after market creation, if at any 30-minute interval, I determine Trump’s odds have overtaken Kamala by at least 0.1% it will be considered a pass for the point at which the 0.1% or greater Trump lead is shown on the graph.

The first pass since 9/11 12am EST will be the only pass considered in resolving this market.

To further ensure bias has no roll in determining the “official time of the pass” I will not trade in this market.

If Trump odds never pass Kamala (0.1% gap favoring Trump) before the eod (11:59:59 pm EST) Jan 5th 2025, then “Trump never passes Kamala (by 0.1%)” will resolve YES and everything else will resolve NO.

NOTE: each option referring to a specific day have the following rules: 11:59:59 pm EST when it’s the second day mentioned, and 12:00:00 am EST when it’s the first day mentioned in the option.

Any glitches on their website will not resolve this. I will wait until the point in question is static and the following point is plotted to determine if it was a pass and at what exact moment.

Comment any question or news you have! 💙

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October 1st to November 4th (VP debate likely within)

@traders it has been done. thank you all for trading. will make a part 4 if she takes the lead again 🫡

bought Ṁ200 October 1st to Novem... YES

hmm

currently Harris +1.3

October 1st to November 4th (VP debate likely within)
bought Ṁ15 October 1st to Novem... YES

October one is a huge interval - longer than a month. If you think he'll pass her, that one is a must pick

@GregMister only one option can resolve YES. if you think she is very likely to pass in september, then by definition the october bucket is unlikely

bought Ṁ5 October 1st to Novem... YES

@Ziddletwix the point is that given it is uncertain, assuming a uniform likelihood until election day, the october one is like 5x more likely, so if youre going to bet, might as well be that one

reposted

Interesting market:

you guys made a great website. I appreciate your work very much 🫡

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