So 65% chance Trump by 0.1 to 35% of Harris by 100 and 55/45 odds implies Trump has a 69% chance of winning given he passes Harris.

we know if he passes Harris before election day his odds of winning are ~50% but if he passes Harris after election day it's closer to 100% (perhaps 90%)

So basically 3 equally likely options,

• Harris wire to wire victory

• Trump passes Harris before election, 50/50

• Trump passes Harris on/after Election, 90/10

@ChinmayTheMathGuy The structure makes sense. The third scenario is excluded because the question resolves at the "beginning of election day" so a 90/10 is extremely unlikely by then.

@PlainBG oh I mixed it up with this market https://manifold.markets/pluffASMR/when-will-trump-pass-harris-on-elec-q0r72b9mu?r=Q2hpbm1heVRoZU1hdGhHdXk

@ChinmayTheMathGuy I have it at 60-65% chance of Trump winning if he leads before election day, which implies the chance of Trump passing Harris is a bit higher than 69%. There's a lot of volatility left so that seems right to me.

I don't think the volatility can be that high since the debate was likely the most volatile event and only shifted the odds by 5% (Kamala 47% to 52%)

I had a question drafted for this but wasn't that sure on how to set the criteria.

I think Polymarket leans a bit right wing so I feel they might overestimate Trump's odds, so I think 50/50 is roughly fair.

So the reason you think it's 60-65 could be because you believe in momentum or maybe I'm underestimating the volatility of October surprises. Or if an event like the trump shooting which massively affects the Odds.

Or if we think the true odds are 60/40 Kamala and the market is slow to catch up, then a shift towards Trump would be unexpected.

Idk it's just hard for me to fathom that the betting odds could say 50/50 while the true odds are 63/37 in favor of Trump barring some major event before the election which I think is unlikely.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy It's maybe easier to first estimate Harris price on election day if she never loses the lead in markets from now on. It's the scenario of stable and even growing polling lead, so I think 65% is a fair guess in expectation (a bit lower than Biden's final price who had a larger polling lead in 2020).

Then we have to sort out the other components to multiply to the current market price of 47% Trump win: Pr(Trump never leads again), Pr(Trump regains lead at least once), Trump price if he regains lead at least once. The Trump price if he regains lead should be lower than 65% (let's say 60%) because it implies a more volatile environment than the inverse in which Harris never loses the lead (where we assumed her price to be 65%). Then it's a matter of playing with the probabilities of Trump regaining market lead or not.

I realized I said something else earlier, but I think in my final analysis this market should be priced at less than 60%.

i didnt do any math but id take a big position of YES at 60%

@Bayesian I won't be betting anymore lol, the more I do the math the less intuitive it gets. I also sense >60%.

jim math says 90% btw

when will it happen?

(same source but “pass”=0.1% lead on graph)