How many presidential debates between Trump and Harris (in person) will there be?

resolved by

239

1kṀ57k

resolved Nov 6

ALL

Trump retracts retraction on ABC debate

Aug 8

Trump v. Harris debate

Sep 11

100%99.1%

1 debate

0.3%

0 - no debate between Trump and Harris

0.3%

2 debates

0.3%

3 or more debates

Trump says he's “open to debating Vice President Harris more than once” according to multiple sources.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-he-would-willing-do-more-than-one-debate-vice-president-harris.amp

This market will resolve to the exact number of official presidential debates, between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump (IN PERSON), aired on television before the 2024 Presidential Election.

US Politics

Politics

Trump

2024 US Presidential Election

Kamala Harris

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#	Name	Total profit
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2		Ṁ791
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5		Ṁ393

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bought Ṁ90 1 debate YES5mo

@pluffASMR time to resolve?

5mo

@mods

Currently, Trump says it is too late for a second debate - this was roughly a week ago. Now it’s the beginning of october, so chances are getting smaller with every day.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/21/politics/video/trump-harris-presidential-cnn-debate-digvid

7mo

“Trump campaign official calls out Harris team for eyeing 'escape hatch' ahead of debate: 'They're afraid'“ -FOX NEWS

“Harris Wants Hot Mics For Debate Against Trump—Reigniting Debate Rule Spat” -FORBES

“Harris calls on Trump to debate with mics 'on the whole time'“ -REUTERS

“ABC News Rejects Kamala Harris' Last-Minute Bid to Change Trump Debate Rules — Rivals Will Keep Muted Mics” -HALEY GUNN

bought Ṁ50 1 debate YES7mo

sold Ṁ165 2 debates YES7mo

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113025866788629314

8mo

another similar market:

8mo

LMAO Trump now saying his agreement for the ABC debate on sept 10th is “terminated” sooo here’s another market: @traders

bought Ṁ50 0 - no debate betwee... NO8mo

bought Ṁ50 2 debates YES8mo

8mo

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/if-biden-drops-out-of-the-election?r=cGx1ZmZBU01S

https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-kamala-harris-debate-donald-tr?r=cGx1ZmZBU01S

https://manifold.markets/tlaloc/will-there-be-a-trumpharris-debate?r=cGx1ZmZBU01S

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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