This question resolves YES if there are at least three live presidential debates (virtual or in-person) featuring at least one major party candidate (whoever they may be) before the end of 5 Nov 2024.
There have been at least two presidential debates in every US presidential election since 1976 (or 1984 if you exclude 1980, which featured two debates but one which lacked both main party candidates). For easy reference, here are the number of debates in each election cycle and a link to debate schedules on Wikipedia:
2020: 2
2016: 3
2012: 3
2008: 3
2004: 3
2000: 3
1996: 2
1992: 3
1988: 2
1984: 2
1980: 1 including both Carter and Reagan, 2 including at least one or the other
1976: 3
1960: 4
Will there be a third debate?
See also:
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Seems very high compared to https://manifold.markets/pluffASMR/how-many-presidential-debates-betwe
I've arbitraged a bunch but I'm worried I'm missing something.
@Tsunombie Trump/Harris two debates should trade at roughly the same as likelihood of three debates, but there is still a huge spread
@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 The difference is helping me win back a little after my earlier idiocy (when I was trying to compare 2 Trump/Harris = 2 total presidential), although it's gonna take a lot to make up for my idiocy