After Kamala passes Trump when will Trump pass Kamala?
Basic
180
58k
resolved Aug 21
Kamala passes Trump.
Trump Elon Spaces
Nate Silver update: Harris (+3.1)
100%99.0%
Between Aug. 14th 6:10pm & Sept. 7th 6:10pm
0.6%
Trump never recovers.
0.0%
[THIS RESOLVES “NO”] don't bet up, this was: passback Before Aug. 8th 6:10pm.
0.1%
[THIS RESOLVES “NO”] don't bet up, this was: passback between Aug. 8th & Aug. 14th.
0.3%
Between Sept. 7th 6:10pm & Jan. 6th (election certification)
0.0%
[THIS RESOLVES “NO”] she passed at 6:10 on Aug. 7th, do not bet up.

After Kamala passes Trump I will update all options using the time it happened, and when exactly Trump needs to pass Kamala for respective resolutions.

NOTE:

in order to prevent a confusing passing time and instant pass backs, times of “passes” in this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).

Through analyzing the graph, if at any 30-minute interval, I determine a candidate’s odds has overtaken the other by at least 1.0% it will be considered a “passing” for the time interval at which the 1.0% or greater difference is shown on the graph.

To further ensure bias has no roll in determining the official time of “passes” I will not trade in this market.

If Kamala odds never pass Trump before the certification of the election, “Kamala never passes Trump.” will resolve YES and everything else will resolve NO.

Example:

If

Graph shows Kamala at 49.3% and Trump at 48.3% at a timestamp of August 1st, 6:00pm.

then,

Kamala passed Trump on August 1st, 6:00pm ET, makes the options:

-Between August 1st 6:00pm, and August 2nd 6:00pm.

-Between August 2nd 6:00pm and August 8th 6:00pm.

-Between August 8th 6:00pm and September 1st 6:00pm.

-Between September 1st 6:00pm and Monday Jan 6th, 2025.

To resolve as one of the above options, after being passed by Kamala, Trump must lead over her by at least 1.0% at any point on the graph within the option’s range. If he does not then “Trump never recovers” resolves YES, and everything else resolves NO.

Any glitches on their website will not resolve this.

Comment any question or news you have! 💙

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Part 2 (but pass = 0.1% gap favoring Trump)

bought Ṁ100 Between Aug. 14th 6:... YES

I believe this meets the criteria.

close but not quite, the 3:15 ended up having a 0.9% gap, now waiting for the point following this developing one.

@pluffASMR Possible the chart's rendering differently for us. I currently see a 1.1 ppt gap on the chart for the latest point. (Disclaimer: I stand to benefit a lot from this judgment.)

You edited your message, but this is also now showing the fresh point, which we have to wait to become static

Yes sorry, the original screenshot wasn't for a matching timestamp. I edited to make them match. This was the screenshot I replaced for reference.

bought Ṁ0 Between Aug. 14th 6:... YES

No problem! thanks for helping me clarify 🫡

could you point out which point you’re referring to? Biggest lead for trump im seeing was .3 so far since Kamala’s first pass.

I read it more carefully - needs to be by 1.0%!

Yes to ensure it’s the exact “moment of pass” 🫡

scary hours...

showing a gap of 1% right now, if this point stays when the next point is plotted it will resolve at the moment of the 1% gap point.

The point is now a .9% gap and not stable yet. Still waiting on following point.

50% seems way too high. Trump's only 8% back in the odds.

Do we really think it's equally likely Harris has a wire-to-wire victory (Trump going from 45% to 0%) compared to Trump going from 45% to 50% in the odds?

Then why aren't his odds more like 25%?

[THIS RESOLVES “NO”] don't bet up, this was: passback Before Aug. 8th 6:10pm.

@pluffASMR Might want to put the same [THIS RESOLVES NO] disclaimer on this one that you put on Kamala never passes Trump.

yes good call

Is it possible to add more weekly increments?

good idea, I might make a market for smaller increments now that it happened, I’ll link if I do 🫡

🫡

@BonjTwo this time smaller increments 🫡

@pluffASMR thank you 🙏