Will Silvio Berlusconi (Italian politician) die during 2023?
Politics
15
104
Ṁ270
resolved Jun 12
Resolved
YES

Will resolve "Yes" if Silvio Berlusconi dies between 1st January 2023 and December 31st 2023.

Will resolve "No" if Silvio Berlusconi is not dead by December 31st 2023 23:59 or if Silvio Berlusconi dies before 1st January 2023.

Silvio Berlusconi is currently 86 years old and turns 87 on September 29th.

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predicted YES

They said I was a madman

Opportunity here:

predicted YES

Morto Silvio Berlusconi, aveva 86 anni. Finisce un pezzo di storia italiana
Se n’è andato stamattina all’ospedale San Raffaele di Milano, dove sono accorsi i figli e il fratello dopo il precipitare della situazione medic…
bought Ṁ800 of YES

https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2023/06/12/news/silvio_berlusconi_morto_cavaliere_presidente_forza_italia-395086245/

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Hospitalized once again https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1667160651075035136

predicted YES

Currently in intensive care https://www.open.online/2023/04/05/milano-silvio-berlusconi-nuovo-ricovero-san-raffaele/

predicted YES

@pizzzzzza because of Leukemia https://tg24.sky.it/cronaca/2023/04/06/berlusconi-ricoverato-ultime-news

bought Ṁ100 of NO

social security actuarial table gives 12% for an 86yo male and then I adjust that downward for wealth and theta to maybe 5%

predicted YES

@JonathanRay can you share your sources for this data?

bought Ṁ23 of NO

@pizzzzzza Google “social security actuarial table”

predicted NO

@JonathanRay Wealth effect is just a guess, and then whatever you have left is reduced by a factor of #daysremaining/365

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