Will Gazprom resume natural gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1 before March 1, 2023?

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Gazprom announced that it would not resume gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on September 2 and the Russian government has since made it clear that deliveries would not resume until the EU sanctions against Russia were lifted. This question resolves to "YES" if, at any point between now and March 1, 2023, Gazprom resumes deliveries through Nord Stream 1. This can be as a result of a deal between the EU and Russia or for whatever other reasons, it doesn't matter for the purposes of this market, the outcome will be only be determined by whether gas deliveries resume, no matter the reason. The question will also resolve to "YES" if Gazprom temporarily resumes deliveries but stops them again before March 1, 2023.

EDIT: In response to M's comment below, I will also stipulate that unless volumes are greater than 5% of the pipeline's capacity, the question will resolve to "NO".

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12 Comments

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

Russia will need the cash and it will be a concession to end the conflict.

predicted NO

If they do it, I don't think it will be for the cash, they have plenty of it right now and this will still be true this winter.

predicted YES

@phl43 Yeah you might be right. I just think the sanctions are long term devastating. We can really see the long term effects of the original sanctions on their ability to conduct this war. Who knows, I’ll bet on greed over continuing this worthless war.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Russia does not have much time in this conflict, their best interest is to modify balance quickly and they can only do that by being a bit radical in their actions. So no supply until end March.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

Yes. Russia has said that the supply disruption is because the broader economic sanctions have prevented needed repairs. This may be true, in which case supply can be resumed when both Russia and the Europeans want it to, which is likely to be sometime this winter.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

"NO" because

1) We're seeing a decoupling in the economic relationship between the west and russia

2) Hardliners on russia will dominate EU foreign policy in the near future and therefore there will be no concessions from the EU that would restart gas delivery

Saying that, if the economic situation gets very bad in the EU, the EU might be willing to make concessions. By bad economic situation I mean that the recession is going to be far worse than during the SDC.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

"NO"

predicted NO

@healthgrid Thanks, I hadn't seen that market, but it's not exactly the same question.

@phl43 I understand, just sharing for hedging purposes. I think it is helpful to discover price discrepancies to display related markets next to each other.

what about microscopic supplies done for technical or trolling reasons (less than 5% of full daily capacity)

predicted NO

@M That's a good point, I edited the description of how the question will be resolve to prevent such a microscopic resumption of deliveries from triggering a "YES" resolution, thanks for pointing out this possibility.