Will Gazprom resume natural gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1 before March 1, 2023?
3%
chance

Gazprom announced that it would not resume gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on September 2 and the Russian government has since made it clear that deliveries would not resume until the EU sanctions against Russia were lifted. This question resolves to "YES" if, at any point between now and March 1, 2023, Gazprom resumes deliveries through Nord Stream 1. This can be as a result of a deal between the EU and Russia or for whatever other reasons, it doesn't matter for the purposes of this market, the outcome will be only be determined by whether gas deliveries resume, no matter the reason. The question will also resolve to "YES" if Gazprom temporarily resumes deliveries but stops them again before March 1, 2023.

EDIT: In response to M's comment below, I will also stipulate that unless volumes are greater than 5% of the pipeline's capacity, the question will resolve to "NO".

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JimOtt avatar
Jim Ott
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Russia will need the cash and it will be a concession to end the conflict.

phl43 avatar
Philippe Lemoine
is predicting NO at 45%

If they do it, I don't think it will be for the cash, they have plenty of it right now and this will still be true this winter.

JimOtt avatar
Jim Ott
is predicting YES at 45%

@phl43 Yeah you might be right. I just think the sanctions are long term devastating. We can really see the long term effects of the original sanctions on their ability to conduct this war. Who knows, I’ll bet on greed over continuing this worthless war.

FabioDonato avatar
Fabio Donato
bought Ṁ50 of NO

Russia does not have much time in this conflict, their best interest is to modify balance quickly and they can only do that by being a bit radical in their actions. So no supply until end March.

psedgley55gmailcom avatar
Pat
bought Ṁ200 of YES

Yes. Russia has said that the supply disruption is because the broader economic sanctions have prevented needed repairs. This may be true, in which case supply can be resumed when both Russia and the Europeans want it to, which is likely to be sometime this winter.

JoergR avatar
JoergR
bought Ṁ200 of NO

"NO" because

1) We're seeing a decoupling in the economic relationship between the west and russia

2) Hardliners on russia will dominate EU foreign policy in the near future and therefore there will be no concessions from the EU that would restart gas delivery

Saying that, if the economic situation gets very bad in the EU, the EU might be willing to make concessions. By bad economic situation I mean that the recession is going to be far worse than during the SDC.

PavelKuzmenko avatar
Pavel
bought Ṁ100 of NO

"NO" because: 1) for Russia to move from defensive to offensive economic warfare, higher Western inflation rates for longer are needed; 2) if a major Russian "kinetic" offensive is to be expected, then not until late winter 2023 after Ukraine has been immiserated by a very difficult winter.

Cesium avatar
phl43 avatar
Philippe Lemoine
is predicting NO at 28%

@healthgrid Thanks, I hadn't seen that market, but it's not exactly the same question.

Cesium avatar

@phl43 I understand, just sharing for hedging purposes. I think it is helpful to discover price discrepancies to display related markets next to each other.

Accountdeletionrequested avatar

what about microscopic supplies done for technical or trolling reasons (less than 5% of full daily capacity)

phl43 avatar
Philippe Lemoine
is predicting NO at 18%

@M That's a good point, I edited the description of how the question will be resolve to prevent such a microscopic resumption of deliveries from triggering a "YES" resolution, thanks for pointing out this possibility.