Gazprom announced that it would not resume gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on September 2 and the Russian government has since made it clear that deliveries would not resume until the EU sanctions against Russia were lifted. This question resolves to "YES" if, at any point between now and March 1, 2023, Gazprom resumes deliveries through Nord Stream 1. This can be as a result of a deal between the EU and Russia or for whatever other reasons, it doesn't matter for the purposes of this market, the outcome will be only be determined by whether gas deliveries resume, no matter the reason. The question will also resolve to "YES" if Gazprom temporarily resumes deliveries but stops them again before March 1, 2023.
EDIT: In response to M's comment below, I will also stipulate that unless volumes are greater than 5% of the pipeline's capacity, the question will resolve to "NO".
Russia will need the cash and it will be a concession to end the conflict.
If they do it, I don't think it will be for the cash, they have plenty of it right now and this will still be true this winter.
Russia does not have much time in this conflict, their best interest is to modify balance quickly and they can only do that by being a bit radical in their actions. So no supply until end March.
Yes. Russia has said that the supply disruption is because the broader economic sanctions have prevented needed repairs. This may be true, in which case supply can be resumed when both Russia and the Europeans want it to, which is likely to be sometime this winter.
"NO" because
1) We're seeing a decoupling in the economic relationship between the west and russia
2) Hardliners on russia will dominate EU foreign policy in the near future and therefore there will be no concessions from the EU that would restart gas delivery
Saying that, if the economic situation gets very bad in the EU, the EU might be willing to make concessions. By bad economic situation I mean that the recession is going to be far worse than during the SDC.
"NO" because: 1) for Russia to move from defensive to offensive economic warfare, higher Western inflation rates for longer are needed; 2) if a major Russian "kinetic" offensive is to be expected, then not until late winter 2023 after Ukraine has been immiserated by a very difficult winter.
what about microscopic supplies done for technical or trolling reasons (less than 5% of full daily capacity)
@M That's a good point, I edited the description of how the question will be resolve to prevent such a microscopic resumption of deliveries from triggering a "YES" resolution, thanks for pointing out this possibility.
