How many electoral votes will Harris win in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, minus 219?
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9
แน€872
Nov 6
47%
chance

This market will resolve to (Harris's EVs - 219)%.

If this number falls outside [0, 100], the closer endpoint will be used. Will aim to resolve when enough news agencies call every state's winner.

Example: if Harris matched Biden's 306 EV's in 2020, the market would resolve to 87%.

Faithless electors will not affect the resolution. If Harris is no longer running by the time of the 2024 election, the Democratic candidate will be used instead.

#๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Politics
#๏ธ Politics
#๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 2024 US Presidential Election
#Trump
#Kamala Harris
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Updated title/description to reflect Harris being the Democratic nominee

opened a แน€8 YES at 23% order

Oops, I managed to forget about the part: "If Biden is no longer running by the time of the 2024 election, the Democratic candidate will be used instead." Could you adapt the title for the time being? I originally had something like "Biden" with an asterisk for my market, but I decided to make it even clearer: https://manifold.markets/ML12d1/open-answer-how-many-electoral-vote?r=TUwxMmQx

Open answer: How many electoral votes will the Democratic presidential candidate win in 2024?
If Biden is not the Democratic nominee, this question will be about the Democratic presidential candidate instead. Answers will be resolved based on the actual Electoral College votes, not electors' pledges. Unfaithful electors may impact the outcome. Feel free to add answers! I will interpret a bare number like "250" as "250 or more". Mon 15 July update: The original title mentioned Biden with an asterisk and the original description stated: "If Biden is not the Democratic nominee, this question will be about the Democratic presidential candidate instead." When I initially created this market, the possibility of Biden dropping out was seen as unlikely, so the title seemed appropriate. However, I now realize that an asterisk in the title might be too subtle of a hint to check the description, so I included the information directly in the title.

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