Will I weigh under 200 lbs on 2024-07-31? (-1.85 lbs per week)
10
182
190
Jul 1
71%
chance

This morning I weighed 267.2 lbs according to my bathroom scale. Will I weigh under 200 lbs according to my bathroom scale on 2024-07-31?

Last time I tried this, it was successful, but I've more than undone all my progress since then, so let's try it again! As it's a commitment aid, I'll only bet yes.

I plan to provide an update in the comments at least once a month. If I forget to weigh in on 2024-07-31 I'll interpolate linearly between the closest weights before and after.

2023-11-19: 267.2 lbs

2023-12-10: 258.4 lbs

2024-01-11: 259.3 lbs

2024-01-31: 251.1 lbs
2024-02-29: 250.1 lbs

Related active markets:

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 YES

250.1 lbs on 2029-02-29.
Rate so far: -1.17 lbs/week

Rate to go: -2.29 lbs/week

Not looking good!

Note on betting strategy: I think I've over-bet on yes, which is part of why I've slowed my yes bets here. I'll still throw some in now and then as additional motivation for myself, but I've moved most of that to the ~weekly markets I've been making, unless/until this market tanks well below my personal estimate.

the resolution date is wrong? i have a similar goal myself and ain't doing too hot so curious to compare notes - is it just counting calories that's working for you? https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-lose-at-least-12kg-by-august

I've been derailed for the past week due to stress but yes, I'm mainly just counting calories. I see you've mentioned it's too tedious and it certainly can be, but I've managed to get used to it. I spent the first week just recording what I ate, not worrying about budgeting, until I was comfortable with that.

One other thing that's been useful in the past (lost ~15kg just over a year ago, though I've gained it back since) was to ensure I drank plenty of water. I kept a 1-liter bottle with me that I'd fill in the morning and after lunch, with no expectation to drink it, but I usually ended up drinking all of it each time. Also, if I was considering a snack, I'd first drink a large glass of water. Most of the time that got rid of the snacking urge or at least let me feel satiated by a smaller snack.

About the close date, I thought I'd read a recommendation that it should be before the resolution date usually, but I can't find that now. Maybe that was for Metaculus, not here. Should I change it?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

251.1 lbs on 1-31.

Rate so far: -1.54 lbs/week

Rate to go: -1.97 lbs/week

predicts YES

I made a new short term market (linked in the description). The last one really helped; this one is slightly more ambitious.

predicts YES

259.3 lbs today, 1-11.

Rate so far: -1.04 lbs/week

Rate to go: -2.06 lbs/week

Commentary: I haven't done much but "try to eat less and healthier" so far. I'll set up some specific habits (and maybe makr markets for them?) to help be more consistent.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

258.4 lbs today, 12-10.
Rate so far: -3.00 lbs/week

Rate to go: -1.74 lbs/week

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Last time the user tried this, they lost ~20lbs in 3 months. They are now trying to lose ~70lbs in 9 months.

predicts YES

Just a clarification, I corrected my starting weight on day 2 last time (I think there was something under the scale?), so it was just over 27lbs in 3 months. I did double-check that the scale was unobstructed this time. 😃