This morning I weighed 267.2 lbs according to my bathroom scale. Will I weigh under 200 lbs according to my bathroom scale on 2024-07-31?
Last time I tried this, it was successful, but I've more than undone all my progress since then, so let's try it again! As it's a commitment aid, I'll only bet yes.
I plan to provide an update in the comments at least once a month. If I forget to weigh in on 2024-07-31 I'll interpolate linearly between the closest weights before and after.
2023-11-19: 267.2 lbs
2023-12-10: 258.4 lbs
2024-01-11: 259.3 lbs
2024-01-31: 251.1 lbs
2024-02-29: 250.1 lbs
2024-03-22: 239.9 lbs
Related active markets:
Related questions
Forgot to weigh in yesterday.
244.6 lbs on 2024-04-01.
Rate so far: -1.181 lbs/week.
Rate to go: 2.58 lbs/week.
A bit of a rough week since last weigh-in. Based on my estimates I do have some chance to make it still (without starving myself, which I will not do), but I don't have much wiggle room.
I'm adjusting the close date to July 30 (was June 30); someone had asked about it earlier and I can't think of a reason to keep it so far ahead of the resolution date.
I'll still do an end-of-month update but I hit a milestone yesterday so here's a bonus!
239.9 lbs on 2024-03-22.
Rate so far: -1.54 lbs/week.
Rate to go: -2.13 lbs/week.
250.1 lbs on 2024-02-29.
Rate so far: -1.17 lbs/week
Rate to go: -2.29 lbs/week
Not looking good!
Note on betting strategy: I think I've over-bet on yes, which is part of why I've slowed my yes bets here. I'll still throw some in now and then as additional motivation for myself, but I've moved most of that to the ~weekly markets I've been making, unless/until this market tanks well below my personal estimate.
the resolution date is wrong? i have a similar goal myself and ain't doing too hot so curious to compare notes - is it just counting calories that's working for you? https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-lose-at-least-12kg-by-august
I've been derailed for the past week due to stress but yes, I'm mainly just counting calories. I see you've mentioned it's too tedious and it certainly can be, but I've managed to get used to it. I spent the first week just recording what I ate, not worrying about budgeting, until I was comfortable with that.
One other thing that's been useful in the past (lost ~15kg just over a year ago, though I've gained it back since) was to ensure I drank plenty of water. I kept a 1-liter bottle with me that I'd fill in the morning and after lunch, with no expectation to drink it, but I usually ended up drinking all of it each time. Also, if I was considering a snack, I'd first drink a large glass of water. Most of the time that got rid of the snacking urge or at least let me feel satiated by a smaller snack.
About the close date, I thought I'd read a recommendation that it should be before the resolution date usually, but I can't find that now. Maybe that was for Metaculus, not here. Should I change it?
259.3 lbs today, 1-11.
Rate so far: -1.04 lbs/week
Rate to go: -2.06 lbs/week
Commentary: I haven't done much but "try to eat less and healthier" so far. I'll set up some specific habits (and maybe makr markets for them?) to help be more consistent.
258.4 lbs today, 12-10.
Rate so far: -3.00 lbs/week
Rate to go: -1.74 lbs/week