Will I weigh under 230 lbs on 2023-01-01?
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340
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

This is a commitment aid; I will keep buying YES. I intend to provide regular progress updates, at least monthly.

Today on 2022-10-01 I weigh 241.8 lbs. (NOTE: My scale was wrong; see comment with more accurate info.) I initially plan to have 2000±100 net Calories per day. I last weighed under 230 lbs in 2020-09. My peak weight was 259 lbs in 2021-06. I'm 6 ft 0 in tall, male, 34 years old.


2022-10-02: Starting weight was off due to an inaccurate scale. Added note, added new plan in comments.

2022-11-05: Since I haven't been weighing every day lately, I think I need a plan for what to do if I don't weigh myself on January 1. In that case I'll interpolate between the weighings just before and after.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES

This morning I weigh 227.3 lbs. Thanks everyone who participated, I believe running this market made it much easier to stay on target than past times I've attempted to lose weight. Keep an eye out for another one soon!

bought Ṁ10 of YES

My weight this morning was 235.9 lbs. I've kept with 1700 net Calories per day as a target and, if my logs are accurate, I've been slightly under that on average.

I attribute the change to getting more sleep, which I think has made it easier to follow through with my intentions. I also tried supplementing potassium for about two weeks and it may have helped but was unpleasant, and I haven't noticed any change in difficulty or results since I stopped.

I expect that I will reach my goal if I keep hitting my Calorie target.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@phaen If you're seriously trying to hit this target (and keep the weight off for a while afterwards), your best bet is the surprisingly empirically well-supported Potato Diet: https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/04/29/potato-diet-community-trial-sign-up-now-lol/

predicted YES

@cos I've been meaning to give this a try myself. You get to eat as much as you like just as long as it's all potatoes. Seriously, give it a few days, at least, and tell us how you feel!

predicted YES

Thanks, I've seen the potato posts. I might try a partial version (full-time wouldn't fit well with family meals), or the potassium-supplement experiment, if sticking to calorie limits alone ends up being too much effort. I'll share here if I do that.

predicted YES

@cos Update on this: I tried the potassium supplementation protocol. It tasted bad and made me feel a bit odd, but I was feeling less hungry than before. I also focused on getting more sleep at the same time, which I suspect had a bigger impact. I stopped the potassium after about two weeks and haven't noticed any increase in difficulty or hunger since then.

bought Ṁ88 of NO

I hope you take my money.

You may want to consider a more extreme calorie restriction to reliably hit your target. I did a month fast one year (1 small meal at night). Interesting thing, I feel like it reset my sensations of hunger and being bothered by it; and feelings of fullness became more satiating (so I eat less). My weight has been consistently below what it was ever since that time.

predicted YES

Thanks. I'm giving my current plan another week or so and will reassess. I would worry about nutrition with that approach (but maybe one month isn't long enough to hit problems there?) but I'll keep it in mind.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

I'm now at 246.6 lbs. Not doing too well so far, but it's still technically possible.

predicted YES

This just got quite a bit harder. My scale was not weighing right yesterday. My weight today was 247.2 lbs.

I think I could justify changing the end goal or abandoning the market, but since it's still in an achievable range, I'll still try for it. I am, however, adjusting my Calorie target to 1700±100.