Will I weigh under 200 lbs on 2024-12-31? (-1.55 lbs/week)

Question

This morning I weighed 245.5 lbs according to my bathroom scale. Will I weigh under 200 lbs according to my bathroom scale on 2024-12-31?

I'm 50% successful on these months-long attempts, and the latest one seems unattainable, so let's try it again! As it's a commitment aid, I'll only bet and hold yes (and may bet past my personal belief, as long as I think it'll help motivate me).

I plan to provide an update in the comments at least once a month. If I forget to weigh in on 2024-12-31 I'll interpolate linearly between the closest weights before and after.

2024-06-08: 245.5 lbs

2024-07-04: 248.8 lbs

2024-08-01: 232.1 lbs

2024-09-01: 225.2 lbs

2024-10-01: 225.2 lbs

Current short-term market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/phaen/will-i-eat-under-1650-calories-each)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.