Which milestones will my business hit this year
13
1.3kṀ2788
Dec 31
92%
$2,500 in a single month
84%
$1,000 total revenue
72%
$1,000 in a single month
50%
$5,000 in a single month
43%
$10,000 in a single month
Resolved
YES
$100 total revenue
Resolved
YES
$100 in a single month

I quit my job at the end of July and am spending (at least) the rest of the year trying to start a business. To avoid getting into financial trouble, I've set a goal of reaching $1000 / month of revenue by the end of the year. If I'm unable to reach that milestone, I will start looking for a regular job again.

The resolution to the various questions in the group rely somewhat on the honor system, however, I will share appropriately redacted screenshots from my Stripe account as evidence when I hit each goal.

I'm posting weekly updates on my progress here. That's where you can get the most detailed updates on what I'm working on, however I will also post any important updates in the comments.

Some general background about me and what skillset I have:

  • Software - robotics, web development, UI/UX stuff

  • Other engineering skills: basic mechanical design / fabrication, basic electronics stuff

  • Forecasting - Metaculus Pro Forecaster, 2x tournament winner, #3 on the platform in 2023

  • Writing - I blogged about forecasting and other stuff for about 6 months in 2023. One of my posts was mentioned in an ACX post. Stopped blogging once I got a job

  • More info at my personal website and linkedin

Any support, advice, ideas, etc. are welcome!

EDIT: I will only ever bet on YES in this market and will not sell any shares. If I have new revenue stats to update, I will post the updates for at least an hour before placing additional bets.

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CURRENT STATS

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Updated 9/17/25

Total revenue: $793.59

Best month: $750.00 (Sep)

Current Month: $750.00

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Closed the aforementioned sale today and am over $500 for the current month so the $100 (total) and $100 (single month) milestones have been reached!

Also $1000 total will be reached next month for sure so long as I fulfill all my obligations for this sale

Looks like I need add some more difficult milestones!

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 20% order

Should also mention, I have a separate $250 sale that should go through tomorrow!

Should have a $1000 deal close soon! Will be $500 now and $500 in about a month, so likely won't hit a 1k month from this one alone.

Also have another solid lead that could be a few hundred dollars, not final yet though

bought Ṁ10 YES

You should reach out to businesses without websites, make their site for free and just charge for the hosting costs. Can make online transaction fees if they sell stuff through site as well.

@RKCarn Yeah I've thought about that kind of thing. Typically the model is to charge a large up-front fee ($1000 for a basic landing page, $2500 for landing page + SEO and other marketing stuff), and then a small monthly maintenance cost. But for getting initial customers, and building up a portfolio + testimonials, the model of building the site first and then trying to get the business to pay you for it could be a starting point

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