Will I be able to buy a commercial humanoid robot that does useful household labor (e.g. laundry, dishes) by EOY 2025?
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24%
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Will resolve to YES if there’s a commercially available product in customers’ hands in significant numbers by end of 2025.
Just has to do some useful household labor, not all the examples I listed. It has to be something that nontrivially uses the humanoid form though—for example, a plastic human-shaped shell atop a roomba wouldn’t count.
If e.g. the robot comes out in China first but the US blocks it with tariffs/import sanctions, that still resolves as YES (I could hypothetically fly to China and buy one).
Other edge cases will resolve according to the spirit of the question.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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