MANIFOLD
Alphabet becomes the most valuable company in the world by end of 2026
10
Ṁ100Ṁ208
Dec 31
13%
chance

Resolves to YES if Alphabet becomes the most valuable company in the world by market cap for any period of time. For example, if Alphabet becomes #1 for one day and then immediately slips back to #2/3/4, this still resolves to YES.

As of February 2026, NVIDIA is the largest company in the world with a market cap of $4.56 trillion, followed by Apple ($3.95 trillion), Alphabet ($3.83 trillion), and Microsoft ($3.53 trillion).

  • Update 2026-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market cap data will be sourced from companiesmarketcap.com (subject to change based on suggestions).

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Would be cool if you could clarify from where exactly you will be sourcing the market-cap numbers, that will help resolve this market.

@PlutoGaming curious, is there a lot of variation between different reputable sources of company market caps? on priors I would be really surprised if this resolved differently if I used, for example, yahoo finance vs companiesmarketcap vs bloomberg. As a default for now, let's say companiesmarketcap.com? I'm open to suggestions.

@ookina_inu There's really not a lot of variation, I'm comparing figures on Yahoo! Finance and CompaniesMarketCap and the differences in figures is negligible. For example, as of 8:50(UTC) Nvidia is listed at 4.450T on CMC and at 4.451T on Yahoo, for most of the top 10, the difference, if any is in the thousandths. So basically negligible. CompaniesMarketCap is fine. Thanks.

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