Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Microsoft acquires or merges with OpenAI by December 31, 2027. Resolution requires a binding agreement where Microsoft obtains control of OpenAI as a subsidiary or through a full merger, as confirmed by official announcements from both companies or regulatory filings. Partial ownership stakes, minority investments, or partnership agreements do not qualify. The market resolves NO if no such acquisition or merger occurs by the deadline.

Background

Microsoft has invested in OpenAI since 2019, with a $10 billion investment in January 2023. As of October 2025, Microsoft held an investment valued at $135 billion, representing roughly 27% of OpenAI on an as-converted diluted basis. The European Commission announced in June 2024 that Microsoft had not acquired control on a lasting basis over OpenAI, and the partnership did not qualify as a merger. In March 2025, the UK's CMA decided that Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI does not qualify for investigation under merger provisions.

OpenAI's reliance on Microsoft for computing power has been gradually reduced, with OpenAI partnering with Oracle as of June 2024 to tap into more computing capacity. OpenAI partnered with SoftBank, Thrive, Nvidia and Oracle on the Stargate AI data center project, which notably omits Microsoft. As of March 31, 2026, OpenAI closed a funding round at an $852 billion valuation with $122 billion in committed capital.

Considerations

OpenAI's nonprofit retained control after facing pressure from civic leaders and ex-employees, which structurally limits Microsoft's ability to acquire the company without significant governance changes. Under the October 2025 agreement, OpenAI remains Microsoft's frontier model partner with exclusive IP rights and Azure API exclusivity until AGI is declared, suggesting both parties view the partnership as preferable to acquisition. OpenAI is expected to hit the public markets in 2026, which would make acquisition substantially more expensive and complex.

This description was generated by AI.