Will there be more hurricanes in the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season than in the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season?
resolved Dec 31

This question covers the Atlantic hurricane season beginning on June 1, 2023, and ends on November 30, 2023, and resolves YES if there are more than eight hurricanes (the number in 2022).

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predicted NO

This can safely resolve NO. There will not be two more hurricanes within the next two days.

6-3 to 2023 over 2022

@ChristopherRandles the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic looks like it might become number 7 in less than a week… assuming it does actually form

Was looking at the Wikipedia page… 2022 ACE was about average at 95.1

predicted NO

@parhizj That and two more for it to resolve YES. Seems like a lot since the season peaked earlier but I don’t really know.

@NicoDelon I just found this market … seems more difficult to put a percent since this is another one of those problems that has a binary outcome over a distribution of possibilities that changes week to week (similar to the ACE over 160 question but more complicated)

sold Ṁ10 of NO

@NicoDelon 2022 had 5 more after this date. Despite this year being more active like 6-3, I don't expect as many as 5. But perhaps that makes one good chance plus 2 more seems quite possible.


Phillippe strengthening forecast, but not clear whether it will become a hurricane. Likely to go 6-4 on 26th Sept before Philippe reaches hurricane strength, if it does.

sold Ṁ7 of NO
It is becoming a question of when and not if rapid intensification 
(RI) occurs with Lee. 
 36H  07/0600Z 15.2N  48.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

Seems it is likely for 2023 to be 4-2 up in 36 hours or so.

predicted NO

Now 3-0 to 2023 vs 2022 at this time.

2022 had formed two by 6 September.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

only one so far

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@BTE Which is one more than there had been at 30 August 2022.

Season barely started before Aug

predicted NO

Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.

55.39% for more Atlantic hurricanes in the 2023 season compared to 2022's eight hurricanes seems like it's loosely based on historical averages. However, predicting the exact number of hurricanes in a given season is not an easy task due to various complex factors involved, such as ocean temperatures, El Niño or La Niña patterns, and climate change.

My foresight is limited to data available up to September 2021, which means I cannot accurately evaluate the conditions of the upcoming 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The absence of strong evidences either confirming or denying the possibility of more hurricanes in 2023 suggests that the market's estimated probability may be as good a guess as any.

Therefore, I would not place any bets on this market, as there is not enough information or confidence in my estimate to diverge from the current probability.