Will this market resolve below 50% probability
4
100Ṁ21Apr 12
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is a self-referential market about prediction market dynamics. The market will resolve YES if the final probability shown on this market is below 50% at the time of resolution. It will resolve NO if the final probability is 50% or higher.
This creates an interesting game theory situation where traders must consider whether voting for what they want (by buying YES or NO) might actually work against their interests.
Resolution will occur on May 1, 2025 based on the final probability displayed on the market at that time.
Genuinely have no clue what to vote on here
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026
49% chance
Will this market resolve below 50%?
50% chance
Is average probability (upon resolution) of manifold.markets questions less than 50% for all questions settled in 2024
75% chance
This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030
49% chance